Take The Orioles For Our Weekly ‘Fade Patrick Corbin’ Bet

Washington Nationals (49-93) starting LHP Patrick Corbin (6-18, 6.30 ERA) has been a blessing for MLB bettors this season. The Baltimore Orioles (74-67) are his lucky opponents Wednesday as the Orioles-Nationals close out an interleague back-to-back.

Baltimore is still holding on to playoff hopes. The Orioles are five games behind the Seattle Mariners for the final AL wild card seed but just 4-6 in the last 10 games. Washington’s season is already over and it has the worst record in baseball.

Corbin has played a big role in the Nationals’ terribleness and the market continues to undervalue the Orioles. Hence I’m BETTING the BALTIMORE ORIOLES (-140) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Deets (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline (ML): ORIOLES (-140), Nationals (+120)
  • Run Line (RL): Orioles -1.5 (+115), Nationals +1.5 (-135)
  • Total (O/U) — 8.5 — O: -110, U: -110
Baltimore Orioles Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. (G Fiume/Getty Images)

Corbin’s Nightmare 2022 & Orioles Cash As Favorites

Corbin has gotten shelled this season. He has the most losses in MLB and the highest expected ERA (xERA) among starters with 100 innings pitched. This isn’t just bad luck either.

For instance, Corbin grades in the 4th percentile or worse exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate, per Statcast. Opponents have a +.300 batting average vs. all four of Corbin’s pitches.

Furthermore, Corbin has the fourth-worst profit margin among starting pitchers. In fact, if a $100 bettor backed Corbin for every one of his starts, that bettor would be down $1,331 this season.

On top of that, Washington has one of the worst bullpens in MLB. The Nationals are bottom-10 in WAR, ERA, FIP and hard-hit rate, according to FanGraphs.

Also, Baltimore is profitable in most spots related to Wednesday’s game against Washington. The Orioles are 3-1 as road favorites this season with a +36.3% return on investment (ROI). Baltimore is 8-3 as -140 favorites or greater and 8-1 as favorites vs. left-handed starters with a +56.4% ROI.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BALTIMORE ORIOLES (-140).

  • A $140 bet on the Orioles (-140) returns a $100 profit if Baltimore wins outright.

FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark

Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.


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Written by Geoff Clark

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