Take the Mets in a Coinflip Game

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Mets vs. Brewers, 7:40 ET

The Mets are clinging to a division lead, and while they don’t necessarily need to win the division for any reason other than home-field advantage at times, they still should fight for it. Basically, they will make the playoffs either way – Wild Card or Division winner. One big bolster to the Mets chances of winning is Max Scherzer being back.

There are a lot of guys that come off of the injured list that I sit there and say “Don’t play him because he probably will be on a pitch count, or he will be rusty.” None of those thoughts go through my head with Scherzer. Will he be on a pitch count? I’m sure it is possible. He missed all of June though and he threw 79 pitches in his return to the rotation in July. I don’t think they will let him get to 100 pitches, but I’d be surprised if they had a limit of 75 pitches or something. He is too good and too dominant for them to pull him early. Even if they do, he probably will throw five scoreless innings. His road starts on this season are a bit worse than home starts, but when I say worse, I mean that almost every pitcher would take his road stats.

Corbin Burnes is pitching for the Brewers. We know he has that Cy Young pedigree and has had a really nice follow-up season to last year. If the Brewers have any hope at making the playoffs, Burnes and the rest of the staff will need to pitch their hearts out and they will need to steal a Wild Card spot. Burnes has struggled the last two months in comparison to the rest of the season. In August, he had a 4.81 ERA and lowered it to a 3.92 ERA in September. His best start in those past two months came in his last home start. He has one start against the Mets this year, a 10-2 win in which he went six innings and allowed just two earned runs.

This is about as good of a matchup for pitching as you’ll see all season, even with Scherzer coming off of the disabled list. This could be a playoff matchup in all reality. I have no faith in the Brewers to win a big game though. I would be shocked if this game doesn’t see at least some runs. This is the lowest total I’ve seen in a game this season for five innings at just 3 runs. The Mets are playing very well right now. Even against Burnes, I’ll take Scherzer and the Mets for the game at -110. I trust their lineup more.

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Written by David Troy

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