Rays vs. Guardians, 6:10 ET
Yesterday wasn’t the cleanest of days that I’ve provided picks for. I went just 1-2 on the day. I said the Tigers were the right side in the game, but they were losing after five innings which is where I headed for my play. Kind of a bummer, but whatever we can get that back today. Let’s start with a focus on two playoff teams.
The Rays have Tyler Glasnow going for them. Do you remember Tyler Glasnow? I do. He has been out for 14 months due to Tommy John surgery. How long will he last? Who knows. What I do know is that if Glasnow is 75% of what he was last season he probably will be one of the best additions you could ask for heading into the playoffs. Glasnow last season (before injury) had a 2.66 ERA through the middle of June. Tonight, he will get a total of about 45 pitches – they are expecting between two and three innings out of him. One other thing to note about Glasnow, he just struck out 14 in his most recent Triple-A outing, and he went seven innings in that start. The Rays are used to bullpen games, so it should be fine.
Triston McKenzie has really stepped up for the Guardians in September. This month he has a 2.28 ERA and he was only one out short of getting four quality starts for the month. He was able to help the Guardians get two wins over the Twins and one over the Sox this month too. That was huge in their division race. McKenzie hasn’t pitched against the Rays this season, but the hitters are just 4-for-21 against him. At home on the year, he has been able to produce a sub-3 ERA. I really like the way he is pitching right now.
We know that Glasnow is only going a few innings, three at most. The Rays have a great bullpen so there isn’t a huge concern there. McKenzie has been pitching great for the Guardians. My thought here is that we should take the Guardians today at -125. They’ve been playing very well lately and the Rays are really just trying to figure some things out before the playoffs start. That gives a bit of an edge, enough that -125 is a fair value.
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