Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
Outside of the Red Sox-Yankees or Cardinals-Cubs, the Los Angeles Dodgers (5-5) at the San Francisco Giants (4-5) is the biggest rivalry in MLB. The Dodgers-Giants 3-game set at Oracle Park begins Monday at 9:45 p.m. ET.
LAD sends out lefty ace Julio Urias (2-0, 1.50 ERA) Monday and San Francisco counters with RHP Logan Webb (0-2, 6.55 ERA).
Urias picked up two NL West home wins already, beating the D-Backs on Opening Day. Urias then pitching 6-scoreless innings in a win at the Rockies Tuesday. He has a 12/2 K/BB rate in 12 IP thus far.
Webb on the other hand got raked in his first two starts of 2023, both on the road. The Yankees hit 2 HR on him Opening Day and Webb gave up 4 ER in his next start at the White Sox.
Dodgers vs. Giants Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Giants are 24-7 straight up (SU) at home with Webb on the hill since 2021. But Urias owned San Francisco last year. LAD was 4-1 SU in Urias’ five starts vs. San Francisco in 2022 with an average score of 3.4-1.4.
According to Statcast, Urias’ advanced numbers are much better vs. the Giants than Webb’s against the Dodgers. Also, LAD’s bullpen has a 2.97 FIP (“fielding independent pitching”) and San Francisco’s bullpen FIP is 4.96.
In 132 plate appearances (PA) against active Giants batters, Urias has a 28.8% K-rate with a .184/.230/.281 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), and slugging percentage (xSLG).
On the other hand, Webb’s K-rate is 20.0% and a .312/.387/.497 xBA, xwOBA and xSLG slash line in 145 PA vs. current Dodgers hitters. Urias has a 84.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in these spots and Webb has a 91.5 mph EV.
Per FanGraphs, San Francisco’s lineup is last in both wRC+ (28) and wOBA (.213) vs. left-handed pitching and 29th in both ISO (.068) and BB/K rate (0.15). LAD’s lineup is 4th in wRC+ (128), 3rd in wOBA (.371), 3rd in BB/K rate (0.61), and 2nd in ISO (.255).
Finally, there has been sharp line movement in the betting market toward LA. The Dodgers opened as -135 favorites and have been steamed up to the current number (-145) despite their 3-game losing skid.
BET: Dodgers (-145) moneyline at DraftKings
- Betting Strategy: “Risk” 1 unit instead of betting to win 1 unit. The example of what I mean is in the screenshot below.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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