Take Bears ATS Vs. Bills Sunday And Hold On For Dear Life

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The Buffalo Bills (11-3) go from a blizzard at home last week to a bomb cyclone when they visit the Chicago Bears (3-11) at Soldier Field Saturday for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff.

It’s supposed to snow in Chicago from Thursday to Saturday morning. The weather forecast for Bills-Bears is predicting 9° temperatures with wind speeds up to 20 mph.

Buffalo QB Josh Allen has a cannon for an arm and the Bills are one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. However, the weather conditions favor Chicago’s style of offense. Not only that but Buffalo doesn’t cover big numbers.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline: Bills (-390), Bears (+320)
  • Against the spread: Bills -8.5 (-110), BEARS +8.5 (-110)
  • Total — 40 — O: -115, U: -105

The Bears maul opponents on the ground

Chicago averages the most yards per rush (5.4) and the most rushes per game (34.6). Plus Bears RB Khalil Herbert was activated off of IR and is expected to return this week.

Herbert is second behind QB Justin Fields on the Bears in yards per carry (6.0) and leads the NFL in rushing yards over expectation per carry, per NFL’s Next Gen Stats.

The Chicago Bears celebrate a Justin Fields TD run against the San Francisco 49ers at Soldier Field in Chicago.
The Chicago Bears celebrate a Justin Fields TD run against the San Francisco 49ers at Soldier Field in Chicago. (Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

The Bears’ offensive line has been low-key exceptional as well. Chicago is fifth in pass block win rate and third in run blocking win rate, according to ESPN.

Furthermore, Buffalo has the worst tackling grade in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), and is tied with the Jaguars for the most missed tackles in the league.

The Bears have the most broken tackles in the league and are third in yards after contact per rush, and fourth in yards before contact per rush. 

Also …

This is a ‘bad spot’ for Buffalo

First of all, road favorites of -8.5 or greater are 5-3 straight up (SU) with a +1.1 SU margin and 0-8 against the spread (ATS) with a -9.9 ATS margin this season.

One of those big home underdog covers happened last week. The Bears kept it close as 8.5-point home ‘dogs in a 25-20 home loss to the Eagles in Week 15.

Chicago’s offense was ballin’ prior to Fields’ shoulder injury that sidelined him for the 34-10 loss to the Jets in Week 12. The Bears averaged 29.6 PPG from Weeks 7-11 and have gone Over the total in seven of their last eight games.

Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery scores a TD against the Philadelphia Eagles at Soldier Field in Chicago.
Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery scores a TD against the Philadelphia Eagles at Soldier Field in Chicago. (Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

More importantly, the Bills are 2-4 ATS as 8.5-point favorites in 2022 and have lost four straight ATS in those spots. And Buffalo’s offense is less potent on the road.

The Bills score nearly eight fewer points per game (PPG) on the road compared to home (31.3-23.7). Buffalo has gone Under the total in all seven of their road games in 2022 with a -9.1 Over/Under (O/U) margin.

Lastly, bettors might see Bears +8.5 and say: “Man, the sportsbooks are begging for pro-Chicago money”. I know because this was my logic when backing the Bills as double-digit favorites vs. the Jets twice this season.

But, the sportsbooks know morons like me are going to bet on Buffalo regardless of how large the spread. The Bills have been the public side in every game this season and we know how well that goes.

BET: Bears +8.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +8

The Chicago Bears' odds vs. the Buffalo Bills from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, December 21st at 1:45 p.m. ET.
The Chicago Bears’ odds vs. the Buffalo Bills from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, December 21st at 1:45 p.m. ET.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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