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Since casual NFL fans prefer higher-scoring games and bet Overs, the value is on the UNDER when the New Orleans Saints (3-5) host the Baltimore Ravens (5-3) on Monday Night Football in Week 9 at the Caesars Superdome. Primetime games are 9-16-2 Over/Under (O/U) this season.
Also, New Orleans has morphed into more of a defensive team in recent seasons. Since 2019, the Saints are 5th in defensive expected points added per play and 2nd in defensive success rate.
Over that span, NOLA is 3-6 O/U as home underdogs with a -5.6 total margin and Baltimore is 9-12 O/U as road favorites. 2019 was Ravens QB Lamar Jackson‘s 1st full season as the starter.
The other pro-Under angles in Ravens-Saints are the injury reports for each team, two stout defenses and the betting splits.
Injuries in both offenses
The Saints won’t have success through the air. The strength of the Ravens’ defense is in the secondary and NOLA’s WR corp has cluster injuries.
New Orleans WR Michael Thomas was sent to the IR last week. Saints WR Jarvis Landry is listed as “questionable” on this week’s injury report and Landry has been sidelined with an injury since Week 5.
On the other hand, Baltimore Pro Bowl TE Mark Andrews didn’t travel with the team to New Orleans. Ravens WR Rashod Bateman will miss MNF and RB Gus Edwards is doubtful to play.
‘Styles make fights’
The Saints are 26th in neutral-situation pace and the Ravens are the 3rd-slowest offense by seconds per play, according to Football Outsiders.
New Orleans LB Demario Davis is Pro Football Focus’s highest-graded linebacker (out of 81 charted). Davis is the perfect guy to defend Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson and Davis has plenty of help with NOLA’s elite front seven.
Also, Baltimore improved the defense at the trade deadline by acquiring LB Roquan Smith from the Chicago Bears. The strength of the Saints’ offense is their ground game and Smith’s addition helps the Ravens’ run defense.
Furthermore, both defenses are top-10 in opponent’s 3rd-down conversion rate and both offenses are bottom-10 in red zone conversion rate.
Dalton’s primetime awfulness
New Orleans QB Andy Dalton is historically terrible in primetime games. Dalton’s teams are 6-19 overall with under center in primetime games. He has a 59.9% completion rate and a 79.0 QB Rating.
We saw Dalton puke all over himself with two pick-sixes in the Saints’ 42-34 loss on Thursday Night Football to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 7.
In fact, I’m most concerned about Dalton giving points to Baltimore. As long as Dalton doesn’t turn the ball over, the Ravens-Saints should stay Under the total. And the wiseguys seemingly agree.
‘Pros (UNDER) vs. Joe’s (Over) Game’
Per Pregame.com, more than 70% of the money is on the Under. But, a majority of the bets placed are on the Over. Follow the cash when it’s counter to the public since sharps wager a lot more dough than you or I.
BET: UNDER 46.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.