Surprising Splits Favor Royals Over Twins

Twins vs. Royals, 8:10 ET

We followed up the nice 3-0 sweep with a 2-1 day. I’ll always take it but was disappointed to see that the game we backed wasn’t even close. I had the under in Cubs/Marlins and it was way off. It happens, and I’m not sure there is even much to learn from some of those games. The Marlins may not have many hitters you’d recognize, but they are still able to do damage from time to time. I just happened to run into that game yesterday.

Dylan Bundy is a guy that I’ve had on my “terrible pitcher” list for most of the past few years. I would look for him and just blindly fade him. As you become more experienced in handicapping games, you realize that is a terrible strategy. It works in some cases, but for the most part, you still need to figure it out. On the season, Bundy hasn’t been a terrible pitcher, he’s had some really nice streaks and games. In the away games this season, though he has struggled more than at home. He has a 5.28 road ERA and has allowed 79 hits in 73 innings. It is interesting to me that he hasn’t given up many walks in the year (just 25) but over half of those happened in road starts. In his last two starts, he hasn’t been able to complete five innings. He has faced the Royals just once this season, it was his most recent start. He allowed two earned runs in four innings.

If you’ve read these pieces religiously, you probably know that I have targeted Zack Greinke in very specific situations this season. Greinke at home is a completely different pitcher. In 60.2 innings, he has allowed just 13 earned runs and one home run. In away starts, he has gone 58 innings and allowed 41 earned runs and 13 home runs. So, yes, the splits are drastic and favor him at home, where he pitches today. This will be his fifth start against the Twins this season. In his first four, he has allowed four home runs, 10 earned runs, and six walks over 19 innings. He has only faced them once at home, in that game the Royals lost 1-0. That game saw Greinke pitch five innings and he allowed just one earned run.

You probably see where I am going with this one already. I’m taking the Royals at home with Greinke on the mound. There are two ways you can play this, you can either take the plus money and hope they win the game at +110. Or, you can take the first five innings for the Royals at -110. I’m going to play the first five moneyline. I love plus money options, but this one is so based on the two starters that I think it is safer to play it at -110. I do think I’ll throw a small sprinkle on the Royals/Royals moneyline parlay at +170 though.

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Written by David Troy

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