Geoff Clark
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I’m popping my “Same Game Parlay” (SGP) cherry with the Super Bowl 2023 matchup between Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
DraftKings Sportsbook offers SGPs, which allow you to combine several bets within a game that all have to win for the parlay to cash. The more picks you add to the SGP, the higher the payout.
Giving out parlays publicly is the fastest way to lose your sharp sports betting card so I’ve actually done one of these. But, it’s the Super Bowl and I couldn’t sleep last night so I cooked up a gnarly 6-leg SGP at +7000 odds.
Super Bowl 2023 SGP Leg #1: Chiefs moneyline
The most overstated thing in this Super Bowl 2023 pregame build-up is “the Philadelphia Eagles have a much better roster outside of QB.”
Kansas City’s offensive weapons aren’t as deadly as previous seasons. But, Chiefs future Hall-of-Fame TE Travis Kelce is the best pass-catcher on either team and KC’s offensive line neutralize’s Philly’s sick pass rush.
The bottom line is the Chiefs have more ways they can win. If the Eagles get behind early, are you confident Jalen Hurts can throw Philly back in it? I’m not. But, we know Patrick Mahomes can pull a win out of his a**.
SGP Leg #2: UNDER 51.5 in Chiefs-Eagles
My only unique angle for this Super Bowl is my belief that Kansas City’s defense is underrated. The perception is that if the Chiefs don’t score 30 they cannot win.
KC’s defense has studs and a sneaky-good secondary. Chiefs All-Pro DT Chris Jones is a force multiplier and Super Bowl champion as is defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
Furthermore, these defenses were 1st (Eagles) and 2nd (Chiefs) in sacks during the regular season and both QBs have injury concerns. This leads me to believe both teams will have run-heavy game plans.
Finally, most of the action in the betting market is on the Over so we can fade the public by taking the UNDER. The last four Super Bowls have gone Under the total and two of those were Chiefs’ games.
SGP Leg #3: Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco anytime TD
Outside of Mahomes and Kelce, Pacheco is KC’s best offensive skill-position player. Pacheco has 5 TDs on the season has gotten more touches as the season has progressed since named a starter in Week 7.
The weak spot in Philadelphia’s defense is stopping the run so I’m expecting Pacheco to get a bunch of carries. Perhaps the Chiefs get down to the goal line with a penalty and Pacheco gets a cheap TD.
SGP Leg #4: Patrick Mahomes UNDER 299.5 Passing Yards
Philadelphia’s secondary has a massive edge over KC’s WR corp. Eagles CBs James Bradberry and Darius Slay are top-20 CBs according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Whereas the Chiefs WR corp has taken a step back this season after trading Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins. All three of KC’s starting WR’s have a “below-average” to “poor” matchup vs. Philly’s CBs.
Again, between the Eagles’ struggles in run defense and Mahomes’ sprained ankle, I’m expecting the Chiefs to establish the run.
SGP Leg #5: Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney UNDER 24.5 receiving yards
Unfortunately, Toney rarely plays and has been hampered by injuries throughout his 1st two seasons in the NFL. In his nine games in 2022 for both the Chiefs and Giants, Toney has gone Over this number just three times.
Toney left the AFC championship game early with an injury and missed practice all last week. Because of injuries, Toney wasn’t a major part of KC’s offense during the regular season and he might go missing in the Super Bowl.
SGP Leg #6: Patrick Mahomes UNDER 14.5 rushing yards
Since I like the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, we could see Mahomes take knees out of victory formation to lower his rushing total.
More importantly, Mahomes has a hurt ankle and has gone Under this number in six of his last eight games including both of Kansas City’s playoff games.
Super Bowl SGP Bet Slip
Other Super Bowl Handicaps
Podcast: Super Bowl 2023 Betting Powwow featuring Dan Zaksheske
BETTING SUPER BOWL 2023 CHIEFS-EAGLES: SPREAD, TOTAL, MVP
SUPER BOWL 2023 TOUCHDOWN PROPS: CHIEFS VS. EAGLES, INCLUDING HURTS ANYTIME TD
GAMBLING ON GOOFY SUPER BOWL 2023 NOVELTY PROPS INCLUDING THE GATORADE BATH
SUPER BOWL 2023 CHIEFS-EAGLES RECEIVING PROPS: BACK GOEDERT, FADE TONEY
SUPER BOWL 2023 CHIEFS-EAGLES RUSHING PROPS TO BET
RANDOM SUPER BOWL 2023 CHIEFS-EAGLES GAME PROPS
PATRICK MAHOMES WILL GO UNDER HIS PASSING YARDS PROP
Follow or fade my picks here, for not just the NFL Super Bowl but the NBA, NHL, PGA Tour, college football, and college hoops as well!
FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
PointsBet Sportsbook users can make their first bets risk-free up to $2,000. If the bet loses, PointsBet will refund you in site credit. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.
First-time DraftKings users can get up to a $1,000 deposit bonus and receive a 20% first deposit match up to $1,000 when they sign up. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.
