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Phoenix Suns hosting the Dallas Mavericks Wednesday at the Footprint Center is your quintessential “revenge spot.”
The Mavs embarrassed the Suns with a 33-point beatdown in Game 7 of their Western Conference Semifinals series in Phoenix last season.
Reportedly, the Suns were dealing with COVID issues at the time but no one was ruled out in accordance with the NBA’s health and safety protocols.
There’s value in Phoenix here because of the revenge angle and the market’s recency bias toward Dallas.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Mavericks (+155), Suns (-180)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +4.5 (-110), SUNS -4.5 (-110)
- Total (O/U) — 217.5 — O: -115, U: -105
Everyone is down on the Suns because of their flameout in last year’s playoffs. Phoenix’s preseason loss to Australia’s Adelaide 36ers supports the market’s pessimism for the Suns.
But, let’s not forget how big of a favorite the Suns were entering the playoffs. Phoenix was everyone’s team to represent the West in the NBA Finals and the market is butt-hurt that the Suns didn’t cash their future bets.
However, in this case, I’m willing to excuse a Chris Paul-led team choking in the playoffs since it’s an annual occurrence. And the sharps agree that Phoenix is underrated here.
Since professional bettors wager a lot more dough than the public, the money column of the betting splits is considered sharper than the tickets column.
The Suns have been profitable in these spots since acquiring CP3 at the beginning of 2020. Phoenix is 16-4 ATS as home favorites of 5 points or less in the regular season with a +7.6 ATS margin over the last two seasons. While the Mavs are 10-14 ATS as road ‘dogs of 5 or fewer points.
Also, it’s going to take Dallas time to replace the production of former G Jalen Brunson who signed with the New York Knicks in the offseason. Brunson was the Mavs’ 2nd-leading scorer in last year’s playoff series vs. the Suns and helped take pressure off of Luka Doncic.
BET: Suns -4.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, all the way up to -5.5
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