Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
The Chicago White Sox (62-60) vs. Baltimore Orioles (63-58) series opener Tuesday at Oriole Park in Camden Yards screams UNDER 7.5 (-120) for the following reasons:
- White Sox starting RHP Dylan Cease has the nasty stuff.
- Chicago’s lineup struggles vs. right-handed pitching.
- Baltimore’s bullpen is a top-five unit in baseball.
- “Sharp” money is on a lower-scoring affair.
Pitching Matchup
RHP Dylan Cease (12-5, 2.09 ERA), White Sox
- 7-2 in 11 road starts with a 1.34 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and three home runs in 60 1/3 innings.
- Last start vs. Baltimore: Win, 4-3, June 26 at home in seven innings, allowing one earned run on a solo shot with 13 strikeouts and one walk.
RHP Austin Voth (3-1, 4.86 ERA), Orioles
- 3-0 in the last seven starts with a 2.94 ERA, a 30/7 K/BB rate and four home runs surrendered in 33 2/3 innings.
Cease has been dealing all year and the UNDER has cashed in Chicago’s road games with him on the bump. Per Statcast, Cease grades in the 94th percentile or better in expected ERA over wOBA, expected slugging percentage, K%, whiff rate and fastball velocity.
The White Sox are 3-6 Over/Under (O/U) as road favorites with Cease on the hill. Chicago has a +28.6% return on investment toward the Under in those contests with an average total of 6.45 (4.67-1.78). Furthermore, the White Sox are 17-27-5 O/U on the road vs. righty starters.
Voth is a “bottom-of-the-rotation” starter but Chicago’s lineup sucks against right-handed pitching. The White Sox are 19th in wRC+ (95), 22nd in wOBA (.301) and tied for 27th in BB/K (0.29), according to FanGraphs.
Baltimore’s bullpen is one of the best in baseball with the 4th-best ERA. Who are the three bullpens ahead of Baltimore’s? 1- New York Yankees, 2- Houston Astros and 3- Los Angeles Dodgers. All of which are leading their division. Also, the Orioles had an off-day Monday so their bullpen is well-rested.
Market Analysis
White Sox-Orioles opened with an 8-run total and has been lowered to 7.5, per Pregame.com and VegasInsider.com.
This suggests “sharp line movement” because who’s betting a White Sox-Orioles game on a Tuesday? Public action in NFL or college football games could force line movement but that’s not the case in MLB.
Follow the money and BET UNDER 7.5 WHITE SOX-ORIOLES (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- A $120 wager on White Sox-Orioles UNDER 7.5 (-120) returns a $100 profit if there are seven or fewer runs scored.
