Stroman’s Splits Favor Cubs Against Marlins

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Cubs vs. Marlins, 6:40 ET

We are now 7-2 over our last three days. Slightly better if you took the plus money sprinkle of Royals/Royals yesterday at +170. I’ve mentioned that we had some struggles recently, and they are bound to happen – seriously if you see anyone saying they never slump or only win, run. Hopefully, you’ve been enjoying these pieces and have found them profitable. We have a couple of weeks left in the season, and I’m hoping we can get to the finish line strong.

Marcus Stroman burned me the other day. Last time I bet a Cubs game it was on the 16th and we took the Rockies to win after five innings. In that game, Stroman didn’t even bother allowing a hit until the sixth inning. Believe it or not, it is rather hard to win a game if you don’t hit the ball. Stroman pitched his best home start of the season for the Cubs that day. That was only the second time he went deeper than the fifth innings of any home start. Where Stroman has been consistently successful though is on the road – he pitches to a 1.84 ERA on the road and has only allowed four home runs of his 14 away from Wrigley. Maybe this will be a situation where Stroman used his good start at home and will lay a stinker on the road. There is really no indication for this, and after pitching for the Mets last season, he should be used to pitching in Miami. There also aren’t a ton of at-bats against him, but the Marlins are just 7-for-35 against him.

Another pitcher that tends to pitch better on the road is Jesus Luzardo. Unfortunately for him and the Marlins, he is pitching at home today. At home, Luzardo has only covered 29.2 innings and allowed 19 earned runs which amounts to a 5.76 ERA. Since Luzardo returned to the rotation in August, the Marlins have lost eight of nine games that he started. For the most part, he has pitched okay in those games though. In those nine starts, he has six quality starts. And, of course, the one win for the Marlins in those games was against the Cubs. Luzardo went seven innings, and allowed just one hit and no earned run.

Before even looking at the line, I expected the line to be pretty low, but 6.5 is too low for me. I am not advocating for the over. If it was a 7.5, I’d take it, but I don’t like it at a full run lower. I’m going to instead recommend that we take the Cubs through five innings at -105. Stroman pitches so well on the road and this also allows a push opportunity if the game is tied. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Cubs win this game though. +105 just isn’t that much value there.

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Written by David Troy

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