Videos by OutKick
Cubs vs. Padres, 5:30 ET
I couldn’t believe it when I saw it to be honest. The line was just absurd to me. The Yankees and Dodgers have had two game already this weekend. I lost the first one, and looking back on it, I was stupid with my analysis. The Dodgers won behind Clayton Kershaw. Then yesterday the line was stupid behind Gerrit Cole. Youre telling me he was even money against a crap pitcher? We pounced and took home a ton of cash on it. Tonight, the game between the Cubs and Padres sets up a similar situation and I expect to take more money off the books.
Expectations are a crazy thing when it boils down to it. Expectations for the Cubs coming into the season were pretty low. If they fought for a playoff spot, great. If they were last in the division, something would be wrong, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world either. Yes, they spent money this offseason, but it wasn’t like they had the best offseason in baseball. On the other hand, the expectations of the Padres was that they would be one of the best teams in the game, perhaps one of the best of all time. They have four guys that could legitimately be the best player on any team if they were all separated. It makes no sense just how bad they’ve been. However, that does give us some value as the books are clearly still pricing on potential.
Marcus Stroman has been one of the free agents that was worth the contract for the Cubs. In reality he hasn’t been the best starter in the world or something – he was really struggling at Wrigley Field last year, but he seems to have figured it all out. He has had two thought starts this year, but aside from that, he has been dominant. I’m too tired to figure it out, but he has a sub-3 ERA with two rough starts, if those never happened he’d be even better looking. The Padres send an average guy by the name of Ryan Weathers to the mound. He has been used as both a starter and deliver this season. His past three starts weren’t anything super exciting as he allowed 11 earned over 15.2 innings. I don’t think there is anything special about this guy, but he does seem to be better in a starting capacity that relieving.
I kind of can’t believe the books made the line this way. You probably had to suffer through couple of paragraphs before we got to this ultimate point, but the Cubs with Stroman on the hill are certainly better than the Padres with Weathers. I’ll take the Cubbies at -110 to win this one.
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