What's Going On With The Surprising Philadelphia Phillies?
The Major League Baseball season is nearly two months old, and there's a team on pace to win 116 games. And it's not the preseason favorites like the Los Angeles Dodgers or the Atlanta Braves, it's the Philadelphia Phillies.
Though OutKick's Geoff Clark might not be surprised, the Phillies have come out of nowhere to open up a six-game lead over the Braves in the NL East.
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Thanks to an MLB best 35-14 record, Philadelphia's seen its postseason probability rise from around 50 percent before the start of the season to 99 percent in late-May. So how in the world are they doing it?
Bryce Harper's homer came just two hitters after Rhys Hoskins took the Braves soul with an epic bat slam for the Phillies. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
Phillies Riding Wave Of Good Fortune, Exceptional Performances
The Phillies have benefited from several pieces of exceptional luck through their first 49 games; first and foremost being the fact that they've played just three games all season against teams with a record over .500. And those three games came in the first series of the year against the Atlanta Braves.
For the sake of perspective, the San Diego Padres have played 24 games against teams with a winning record. The Chicago White Sox have played 35.
When you play an easy schedule, it's important to take advantage of it. And the Phillies have, going 34-12 against teams with a losing record.
Another piece of good fortune has come on balls in play. The league batting average on balls in play generally hovers around .300. Meaning hitting the ball in fair territory, on average, results in a hit roughly 30 percent of the time. Individual players can influence their batting average on balls in play with hard contact and line drives. Though even the highest number in a given season will settle in around the .330-.340 range.
Here's a list of batting averages on balls in play for the Phillies lineup.
- Trea Turner .421
- Edmundo Sosa .417
- Alec Bohm .369
- J.T. Realmuto .345
- Kody Clemens .333
- Brandon Marsh .322
- Bryce Harper .310
Even Kyle Schwarber, who had a .209 BABIP last season and a career .259 mark thanks to a propensity for fly balls and predictable grounders to the right side, has a .288 BABIP this year.
Most of their top hitters are having higher than average luck on balls in play. Combine good luck with talented players, and you have a .714 winning percentage.
Phillies Pitching Has Also Been Strong
You'd expect with an easy schedule that quality starting pitching would also lead to exceptional results. And you'd be right.
Ranger Suarez has a 1.36 ERA through his first 10 starts. Zack Wheeler has turned in another typically excellent start to the season with a 2.52 ERA. Aaron Nola has a 3.05 ERA and even Christopher Sanchez has been worth 1.5 WAR. 31-year-old Spencer Turnbull added six starts with an ERA under 2.
And it's not just the starters; out of nowhere, Matt Strahm has become virtually unhittable. Strahm's striking out nearly 43 percent of hitters he faces, with just a 1.4 percent walk rate. Put that together and with an unimaginable 0.19 FIP, his 0.93 ERA has actually been a bit unlucky.
Basically, thanks in some part to their easy schedule, the Phillies pitching staff has collectively been the best in the sport. The 9.7 WAR total is the highest in MLB by over two wins, and worth almost the same in wins above replacement as the bottom five teams…combined.
The Phillies are doing everything right; they're hitting well, pitching well, relieving well. And they're taking advantage of the opportunities they've been given.
A six-game lead in late May over a team like the Braves isn't enough to shut down the division race. And the Phillies schedule and luck will eventually flip. But for a team that's struggled in the regular season, relative to its postseason success, it's as good a start as you could hope for. Despite the Dodgers' star power and the Yankees' start with the acquisition of Juan Soto, suddenly the Phillies look like they could be the team to beat…if their BABIP holds up.