We've Hit The Formula 1 Summer Break So Let's Check-In On Some Preseason Predictions

We've hit the summer break in Formula 1, which means that drivers and team personnel are taking a much-deserved break to recharge their batteries for the final ten races of the F1 season.

However, I think it's also a good time to check in on the predictions I made ahead of this season to see where they stand before the season resumes later this month at Zandvoort.

Some of the predictions are embarrassingly wrong, while others are so creepily on point. I think I may have some kind of selective clairvoyance or something.

So, let's have a look, shall we?

Could Haas get sold to Andretti? That seems far less likely now than it did back at the beginning of the year. (Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Haas: Gets Purchased By Andretti Before The Season Ends

Alright… I don’t think this one is going to pan out.

Sure, a lot can happen between now and Abu Dhabi, but I don’t know that Gene Haas would be interested in selling now that he’s downsizing his stock car operation and team boss Ayao Komatsu has this team cooking.

Haas has weekends where they’re genuinely fast from FP1 to the checkered flag, and I think.

Prediction Score: 6/10. Based on the information that we had at the time, this was an okay prediction. It sucks now, but it was okay back then.

Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber: A Shock Podium

I must have been feeling particularly optimistic when I made this prediction, because boy, oh boy, could this one not be further off-target.

Thinking back, I knew that this one was doomed at the very beginning of the year when Sauber had massive problems with their wheel nuts. That might be one of the simplest parts of the cars and the issue was resulting in painfully long pit stops.

But even after they got that worked out, the team is practically nowhere. They’re the only team on the grid without a point through the start of the summer break, and I don’t think that’s the fault of drivers Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu. I think they’re doing the best with the shopping cart they’ve been given.

So, if by some complete, planets-align chance Sauber does steal a podium, it sure would be a shock. That may even be an understatement.

I think we need to amend this prediction to a shock point.

Prediction Score: 0/10. I mean, I don’t think I could have been more wrong.

READ: THERE ARE ONLY FOUR SEATS LEFT IN F1 FOR ‘25. LET’S PREDICT WHO WILL BE IN THEM

Visa Cash App RB: Yuki Tsunoda Outscores Daniel Ricciardo

Now we’re talking.

I’ve always been a big fan of Yuki’s and I think he has really come into his own as an F1 driver. Right now, he’s got a pretty significant 22-12 lead over teammate Daniel Ricciardo.

I’m pretty confident in this one panning out. I think Yuki’s been solid and will steal a few more points finishes down the stretch.

Prediction Score: 8/10. Yuki is making me look like a genius (I wasn’t getting fooled again after I said De Vries would outscore him last year, so...

Williams: Upward Trajectory Continues To P6

I thought Williams was in for a big year, but that hasn’t been the case at all.

It sure seems as though the team accidentally shot themselves in the foot early with big crashes that cost a lot of money and left them scrambling for chassis which in turn limited the time and resources that could be allocated to development.

Now, they’re a little behind a good chunk of the field that has really improved, namely RB, and Haas.

Williams has the edge over Sauber at the moment, and I really can’t imagine they’ll lose that with Monza coming up after the summer break. That’s been a great track for Williams over the last couple of years since their car tends to work best with as little downforce as possible. Here’s another prediction: expect one of the Williams, maybe both, to score that weekend.

Anyway, I think Williams is still on an upward trajectory, just not to the degree I thought before the season.

Prediction Score: 3/10. Not a good prediction, but still kind of right, so that should count for something.

Alpine: A Significant Tumble Down The Order 

Welp, Mattstradamus seems to have struck again.

Alpine finished in P6 last season, and there were signs pretty early on that this was not going to be a good year for Team Endstone.

While they have scored some points and improved as the season went on, it looks very unlikely that They’ll finish any better than P8 this season.

Alpine has just 11 points this season, which puts them 16 points off of Haas in P7 with 27 points, and 23 points off RB in P5 with 34 points.

I can’t imagine those races tightening too much, but they may have Williams challenging them a little. Williams is in P9 with 4 points, but remember, one good weekend (like at the previously discussed Italian Grand Prix at Monza) and that could be a battle.

Alpine just announced a new team principal in Oliver Oakes, and hopefully, for their sake, he stays in that position for a while because that team needs some leadership stability in the worst way.

Prediction Score: 9/10. Coincidentally, that could be where Alpine finishes this season relative to the rest of the teams in Formula 1.

Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso Wins A Grand Prix

I’ll concede that this prediction was wishful thinking.

I was thinking that Aston Martin would come out of the gates strong like they did in 2023, but… well, that didn't happen.

Aston Martin seems to have continued with their performance plateau from last season while other teams around them have gained ground.

They're still comfortably in the midfield, but remember, about a year ago, this was a team that was in podium contention just about every week.

Disappointing to say the least, but maybe they'll have a big post-break run like McLaren did last season.

Meh, probably not.

Prediction Score: 2/10. Wishful thinking but a crappy prediction.

McLaren driver Oscar Piastri's maiden win was inevitable, but it didn't happen before his teammate became a race-winner. (Photo by Peter Fox - Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images)

McLaren: Oscar Piastri Wins A Race And Does It Before Lando Norris

I was sooooo close with this one, but I did get it half-right.

This is one of the few predictions we can put a pin in since Piastri won the Hungarian Grand Prix a couple of weeks back. Ironically, he had to practically be handed the win by his teammate Lando Norris after McLaren dopily undercut him during the race.

But the part of the prediction that I missed was Norris winning a race first. It was bound to happen given Norris' undeniable talent and McLaren's strong performance since last summer, but I didn't see Norris' win coming as early as it did when he took the checkered flag in Miami this past May.

So, this was a solid prediction that was almost creepily clairvoyant.

Prediction Score: 8.5/10. Headed in the right direction but didn't quite stick the landing.
 

Ferrari: Sainz Beats Leclerc In The Driver Standings

My theory here is that Sainz will be driving with a chip on his shoulder after getting shown the door by the Scuderia to make room for Lewis Hamilton, and for the most part, he has.

Sainz has been great with Ferrari this season and quickly became the hottest commodity on the drivers' market before signing a deal with Williams.

But I predicted that he would best his teammate Charles Leclerc in the standings, and honestly, it's close. As it stands, Leclerc is in P3 with 177 points while Sainz is in P5 with 162. It'll be close, but it certainly doesn't help my prediction that Sainz had to sit out the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix with appendicitis. It could be even closer.

I still believe in this prediction but it's going to be really close through the last ten races.

Prediction: 7.5/10. Would've gotten a higher score if I had called Sainz's appendicitis.

Lewis Hamilton finally found himself on the top step of the podium earlier this season at his home race. (Photo by Alessio Morgese/NurPhoto via Getty Images).

Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton Returns To The Top Step Of The Podium

Now here's one where I hit the dead center of the bullseye.

Mercedes has shown flashes of pace since the 2022 regulations came into play, but they've struggled more than any of the other front-runners at times.

Still, I had a feeling Sir Lewis wasn't going to leave the Silver Arrows without adding another win to his resume. He did exactly that at the British Grand Prix and added a second in Belgium after his teammate George Russell was disqualified.

Sure, saying "Lewis Hamilton will win" isn't the most lofty prediction, but it had been a few seasons since his last win, so forgive my victory lap.

Prediction Score: 10/10. It should be 20/10 since he won twice. I might actually be psychic… 

Sergio Perez is signed for next season, but his future with Red Bull still seems up in the air. (Photo by SIMON WOHLFAHRT / AFP) (Photo by SIMON WOHLFAHRT/AFP via Getty Images)

Red Bull: Mid-Season Driver Change

This could be the most interesting prediction of them all because it still kind of feels like it's on the table.

Red Bull re-upped with Sergio Perez for 2025, but the Mexican driver has struggled since the Miami Grand Prix in early May. That has led to speculation that Red Bull was thinking about making a mid-season switch — something they're not averse to doing — either just before or after the summer break.

Team personnel, including Chrisitan Horner, have said that Checo is the guy, but with how strong other teams like McLaren have been as of late, the team needs every point they can get if they want to hang on to the Constructors' Championship.

At this point, I think Checo finishes out the season, but it wouldn't shock me if this prediction came true.

Prediction Score: 6/10. Doesn't seem likely, but who knows, maybe it happens.

…

It'll be a fun race to the end of the season, and I think we're in for more surprises this year.

As always, feel free to send me your predictions: mattreigleoutkick@gmail.com