Should Vols Match Marquette's Offer for Cuonzo Martin?
As Cuonzo Martin weighs an offer to become Marquette's next coach, Tennessee has an interesting decision to make, should they match whatever Marquette is offering or take Martin's buyout and go hire a new coach? Right now Martin makes $1.3 million a year and has two years remaining on his Tennessee contract. Tomorrow Martin's buyout drops from $2.6 million to $1.3 million. If Martin leaves, it would probably be announced tomorrow because that saves Marquette over a million dollars in buyout money.
So what's Cuonzo worth on the open market? You have to assume that Marquette is willing to offer him around $2 million a year. Reports are that Marquette was paying Buzz Williams $2.8 million a year, but Williams was willing to take half a million less a year to leave for Virginia Tech. Why? Because he wasn't that excited about the future of the newly revamped Big East, a league that has much more in common with the Atlantic 10 than it does the ACC.
So if Cuonzo's got an offer of around $2 million a year from Marquette, should Tennessee match it? Or should the Vols take the $1.3 million buyout and go try and hire someone else?
Pretend you're athletic director Dave Hart and faced with this decision. What would you do?
Let's begin by looking at the 25 highest paid basketball coaches in the country. (Some of the data is from USAToday.com, but I've updated it to reflect recent hires).
1. Coach K, Duke
$7.2 million
2. John Calipari, Kentucky
$5.4 million
3. Rick Pitino, Louisville
$5.1 million
4. Bill Self, Kansas
$5 million
5. Tom Izzo, Michigan State
$3.75 million
6. Billy Donovan, Florida
$3.7 million
7. Thad Matta, Ohio State
$3.2 million
8. Tom Crean, Indiana
$2.9 million
9. Josh Pastner, Memphis
$2.65 million
10. Steve Alford, UCLA
$2.6 million
11. Sean Miller, Arizona
$2.5 million
12. Rick Barnes, Texas
$2.4 million
12. Bo Ryan, Wisconsin
$2.4 million
14. Jay Wright, Villanova
$2.3 million
14. Buzz Williams, Virginia Tech
$2.3 million
14. Travis Ford, Oklahoma State
$2.3 million
14. Bruce Pearl, Auburn
$2.3 million
18. John Thompson, Georgetown
$2.2 million
18. Mike Anderson, Arkansas
$2.2 million
20. Lon Kruger, Oklahoma
$2.1 million
21. Mark Gottfried, N.C. State
$1.95 million
22. Kevin Stallings, Vanderbilt
$1.93 million
23. Jim Boeheim, Syracuse
$1.9 million
23. John Beilein, Michigan
$1.9 million
25. Anthony Grant, Alabama
$1.85 million
25. Jamie Dixon, Pittsburgh
$1.85 million
...
Unlike in football, where coaches make massive amounts of money, if you're willing to pay $2.5 million a year you're paying top ten in the country salary. (You have to pay over $4 million to be top ten in the country for college football).
If Marquette's offer to Cuonzo Martin is in the neighborhood of $2 million, then they're paying him as a top twenty coach in the country. If you're Dave Hart do you believe that Cuonzo Martin is a top twenty coach in the country? Other than Anthony Grant, is there anyone that you'd definitely put Cuonzo in front of? Sure, you can make arguments that Cuonzo is better than Mark Gottfried -- although Gottfried has been to the NCAA tourney eight of his last ten years coaching -- and I'd rather have Cuonzo than Kevin Stallings, who I think is the most overrated coach in the country, but outside of those two can you make an argument for Cuonzo over any of the other guys on this list?
I don't think so. (Although, you can definitely take Cuonzo over Josh Pastner given the salary. $2.65 million?! That's insane. The guy's won two tourney games ever.)
That's especially the case when you consider that Wichita State's Gregg Marshall and VCU's Shaka Smart aren't even in the top 25. Would anyone take Martin over both of these guys right now? I wouldn't. If, perchance, Tennessee let Martin go and then offered Gregg Marshall, who has twice interviewed for the Tennessee job and grew up in the South, $2.5 million a year, would anyone not think that the Vols traded up? Especially given that $1.3 million of that money would be coming from Marquette? It seems to me like Marquette's desperate to get a name that their fan's recognize and they're overpaying. Remember that last season Hart declined to give Cuonzo an extension or raise. If the Vols lose to Iowa in the play-in game, is Hart firing Martin?
Here's the other thing, does Cuonzo even want to leave or is he just flashing the coaching leg to try and get Tennessee to match Marquette's offer? Remember, Buzz Williams just bailed on Marquette to take much less money to coach at Virginia Tech. What does Buzz know about the new Big East that made him willing to leave for a mediocre ACC job? Tennessee's a better job right now than Marquette is. Would Cuonzo really leave a better job in a fit of anger because Vol fans, rightly, would prefer to have Bruce Pearl coach than him? That's not an indictment of Cuonzo, he's just no Pearl.
Cuonzo's a good guy, but his lack of recruiting success in the past four years could begin to bite him big time next year when he's got complete control of the roster. Assuming that Jarnell Stokes leaves, over 85% of Tennessee's rebounding and scoring is departing. Through four recruiting classes, Martin has signed just two four stars or better -- Jarnell Stokes, who Bruce Pearl and his staff had done most of the work recruiting, and Robert Hubbs -- a freshman shooting guard who was injured this year. Otherwise he's signed all two and three star players. That's fine if you develop those players into solid starters, but thus far only Josh Richardson is a true diamond in the rough. The other players are just rough.
So if you're Dave Hart, what's a Sweet 16 run worth? What's Cuonzo Martin's value to you? It's a business decision, do you match what Marquette offered or let him leave, take the buyout, and go hire a new coach?
It's a fascinating decision.
So you're the AD, what do you do?
Personally, I let Cuonzo walk, take the buyout, and go hire a new coach.