Phillies vs. Padres
On second-round futures, I went just 2-2. Now we are onto the Championship Series and I’m looking to get a bit of that back with some additional futures. We have two hot-hitting teams and some pitching staffs that are cruising. This series is extremely unique to me because of the distance between the home parks. The teams will need to fly across the country multiple times (likely), and that to me indicates that our pitchers might have the edge.
Starting with the Phillies, they seem to be just dumb enough to win the entire World Series. I’m not sure where that expression comes from, but it seems to be true for this club. I was really high on them going into the year and then they disappointed me most of the season. For a while, it seemed like they weren’t even a lock to make the playoffs. Then they get in, sweep the Cardinals, dispose of the Braves, and now stare down the Padres with a chance at getting to the World Series on the line. The Phillies have some big names for hitters: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and more. They’ve been able to put together very good at-bats against tough pitching. You also have Zack Wheeler dominating and Aaron Nola throwing as well as I’ve seen him pitch. After those two you do need to get a little hesitant. Ranger Suarez is not a great pitcher, but he is serviceable. Noah Syndergaard is solid, but hittable. Syndergaard has the worst numbers against him for any of the Phillies pitchers, and Suarez has the best, but fewest at-bats against him.
The Padres are doing all of this without Fernando Tatis Jr. I guess it shouldn’t be a surprise that they found success after going all in and grabbing Juan Soto, Josh Hader, and Josh Bell at the deadline. They were able to get rid of easily the best team in baseball in just four games. They did it behind some timely hitting and also really strong pitching. The three-headed monster of Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Blake Snell will be hard to get past. I also think this is what gives the Padres the edge in the series. This series is actually built better for individual pitching performances and game-by-game betting. However, I do have a play for a future.
This is what I am thinking happens in this series. I think Darvish takes Game 1 for the Padres over probably Suarez. Then, I think Wheeler goes in Game 2 and that is more of a coinflip against probably Musgrove. Nola and Snell square off in Game 3. Game 4 will likely be Syndergaard vs. Sean Manaea, or maybe Clevinger. At this point, I think one of these teams is likely to be up 3-1 and I think it is the Padres. I don’t see this series going 7 games, but it is possible. Instead, I like the half unit play on Padres winning 4-2 at +400 and a half unit on Phillies winning 4-2 at +550. I also will put a full unit on the Padres to win the series at -120. I like their full pitching staff better, and think the body clock issue will actually be easier on them than on the Phillies.
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