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SEC’s Best Bets for Nov. 21st

Saturday is shaping up to be one of college football’s best slates all year, and OutKick has you covered with the two best SEC bets of the week.

And if you live in Tennessee, we’re spreading the love again. We’ve got the pick you absolutely must get action on!

All of these bets can be made via the FanDuel Sportsbook here. New users can get their first bet risk free up to $1,000.

Kentucky Wildcats (3-4, 3-4 SEC) @  No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0, 6-0 SEC)

  • Moneyline: UK (+1600), BAMA: (-6000)
  • Spread: UK: +30.5 (-114), BAMA: -30.5 (-106)
  • Total: Over 58.5: (-118), Under 58.5: (-104)

With No. 1 Alabama reopening play after two weeks off, the Crimson Tide host the Kentucky Wildcats, who are coming off a nail-biting win over Vanderbilt. But which team’s spread is the right side of another big SEC matchup? Let’s analyze.

Why Alabama will cover:

Alabama comes in well-rested. Quarterback Mac Jones is a serious Heisman Trophy candidate who leads a potent Crimson Tide team averaging 47.2 points per game.

They also take on a Kentucky team that almost lost to one of college football’s worst offenses last week. Kentucky has yet to face an offense anywhere near Alabama’s caliber, and there’s little reason to believe Saban and company plan to take their foot off the gas.

Why Kentucky will cover:

While Kentucky has yet to face a team as good as Alabama, the Wildcats are only allowing an average of 21.3 points per game. They’re also taking on a Crimson Tide team in a classic tune-up spot before a critical rivalry game against No. 23 Auburn next week. There’s potential the Wildcat defense keeps the game closer than most experts expect.

Our Take: Alabama (-30.5) AND Alabama 1H (-16.5)

We’re not just taking the vastly superior team. The numbers seem obvious in both lines.

Alabama is poised to beat Kentucky in a home blowout, scoring early and often. The number and price are key. Just a year ago, Alabama finished 6-6 against the spread. This season, they’ve become one of the safer bets in college football, coming in 4-2 against the spread.

We believe the market is undervaluing Alabama quarterback Mac Jones. For context, Jones is producing similar numbers to Tua Tagovailoa a year ago. With Alabama exactly matching their average points total from 2019 (47.2) and facing a team that just gave up 35 points to Vanderbilt, this has the makings of a rout in Tuscaloosa.

We love the first half spread, too. At -16.5, the FanDuel sportsbook gives us extra cushion at a price no Vegas book is currently offering. The only way Kentucky covers is if they can find ways to score touchdowns. That’ll be a tough task for the 116th ranked offense. Take Alabama both ways with confidence.

Tennessee Volunteers (2-4, 2-4 SEC) @ No. 23 Auburn Tigers (4-2, 4-2 SEC)

  • Moneyline: TENN (+360), AUB: (-500)
  • Spread: TENN: +10.5 (-106), AUB: -10.5 (-114)
  • Total: Over 50.5: (-112), Under 50.5: (-108)

After a 21-day layoff, the Auburn Tigers host the Tennessee Volunteers in a pivotal SEC matchup. Auburn’s most recent win came on October 31 in a home blowout over LSU, 48-11. The Tennessee Volunteers look to get back in the win column after losing four straight games. But which is the better side to take? Let’s analyze.

Why Auburn will cover:

The Tigers have rest on their side. And although Auburn’s defense hasn’t looked great this season, the Volunteers have only gained over 300 yards of offense once in their last four games, using multiple quarterbacks in the process. In that span, they’ve averaged an abysmal 14.5 points.

Another low offensive output severely limits Tennessee’s chances to keep pace against the Tigers offense, led by quarterback Bo Nix, who is poised to have a big game. More on that later.

It’s also a must-win for Auburn, who has already lost two games this season and take on undefeated rival Alabama next week in the Iron Bowl. The Tigers don’t just need to win, though. They need to win big to move up the rankings and give the committee reason to believe they deserve a premier bowl game at the end of the season.

Why Tennessee will cover:

The Volunteers look to end a four-game losing streak that matched their longest since 2017. But the biggest storyline going into Saturday centers around who head coach Jeremy Pruitt starts at quarterback. Jarrett Guarantano is questionable after suffering a concussion on November 7.

If Guarantano gets the start, there’s reason to believe Tennessee can at least cover the spread, which is priced within two scores.

In 2018, Guarantano led the Volunteers to a victory over Auburn, 30-24. The redshirt senior completed 21-of-32 passes for 328 yards and two touchdowns. Tennessee looks to build off that magic and upset an Auburn team that hasn’t played since last month.

Tennessee’s key will be to get out in front early before the Tigers shake off the rust.

Our take: Auburn (-10.5)

Bo Nix is simply a better quarterback at home. Nix is a career 9-1 playing at Jordan-Hare Stadium, tossing for 14 touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s coming off arguably the best performance of his college football career, throwing for 300 yards and three touchdowns in a win over LSU. Positive quarterback play is always the goal when betting favorites to cover points. We love Nix to build on his strong play.

On the defensive front, if you’re looking for narrative, look no further than Tigers defensive coordinator Kevin Steele. Steele looks to avenge Auburn’s 2018 upset loss to Tennessee.

Take Auburn to cover the points against a Volunteers team yet to discover its identity.

But, wait! There’s more.

BONUS PICK: SPREAD THE LOVE – TENNESSEE TO COVER

Yes! Back by popular demand, our “Spread the Love” event is back this week courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, and we’ve got the spread you absolutely must get action on.

Just like last week, we’re taking the underdog to cover, a pick that saw Vanderbilt shatter a +86.5 point spread. Click here to read about why this is the absolute best bet to make on Saturday.

For every 250 people who bet on Tennessee (+10.5) to cover the spread against Auburn, FanDuel Sportsbook will move the line 1 point, up until Saturday’s kickoff at 7 p.m. ET. Max bet $50. You must live in Tennessee to play.

Let’s make some money.

Written by Outkick

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