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Sometimes it pays to get a line early. If you saw Joel Embiid’s point total early yesterday when it was first posted, you would already have great value and wiggle room. It has since been bet up to 30.5, where there isn’t much value. That’s where the lovely Same Game Parlay comes into play. You may have missed the value on him, but you can put him in the Parlay and not pay the high fee on his point total. Even better, FanDuel Sportsbook offers us a chance to get our money back if we don’t hit the play. Simply bet $10 or less and if this fails, you’ll be refunded your bet.
Starting with Embiid – he scored 39 points in Game 1 and he is some level of injured right now. As I mentioned, his value is gone on the point total, but I’ll take him to score 25+ points at -460 to start this. I’m also going to put Trae Young in there to score 25+ at -260. I actually feel like there is a lot of value on this, even at that high price. That puts the parlay already at -131, which already is a good value. Now let’s start stacking.
I’m looking at the three-point shooters now. John Collins should be good for at least one corner three this game. He is at another -450 for 1+ three-pointer made. Take it and we are into plus money territory. Seth Curry, the lesser-known Curry brother, has hit 3 threes in four of his six playoff games but has hit 47% from three at home this season. I’m going to go out on a limb here and take the over 2.5 to try and get this boosted a bit more.
Next, we will go to rebounds. I’m starting with Clint Capela to get fewer than 12.5 rebounds at -110. He’s 3-3 over 12.5 so far in the playoffs and only had 10 in the first game. I personally think that Collins has a better chance to reach his rebound total of over 6.5, but I’ll play it a bit safe and sacrifice some of the value by playing his 6+ rebound total.
My final addition to this is Ben Simmons to get 8+ assists. He will spend the game chasing Trae Young around. My expectation is that, on offense, he works to get his teammates involved.
Same Game Parlay:
- Embiid 25+ Points (-460)
- Young 25+ Points (-240)
- Collins 1+ Threes (-450)
- Curry over 2.5 Threes (-104)
- Capela under 12.5 Rebounds (-110)
- Collins 6+ Rebounds (-230)
- Simmons 8+ Assists (-192)
Total odds: +1592, a $10 bet pays $159.16
Shot in the dark to add Tobias Harris to score the first basket of the came for +600 — Total odds: +14749, a $10 bet pays $1,474.91.