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Where will the points come from? If we can figure that out, we can make a nice stack of players for tonight’s Hawks vs. Bucks Same Game Parlay. As usual, we are going to go for the lottery play with our risk-free attempt at a $10 play.
Let’s get this one out of the way. We are playing Lopez to hit 2+ three-pointers. We add this in every time, and as I’ve said every time, there is enough reason to justify playing this. In fairness, he’s only done it once this series. But, without Giannis, he should get an extra attempt or two.
According to one site, Khris Middleton has averaged 21.4 points in 41 career games without Giannis. His total tonight is nearly 30 points. He is being paid a lot of money to be a secondary option. So much money that he needs to carry the team nightly, not just occasionally. But, finances aside, I don’t think he gets there as I expect this to be a lower scoring game and the defense to really drive this. I’m taking him to get under 25.5 points at +140.
Aside from Game 3, Jrue Holiday has been taking a lot of attempts from deep this series. I think he will get the bulk of the extra shots from Giannis’ absence. I’m taking Holiday to sink 3+ three-pointers tonight. In addition, I think he gets under 8.5 assists. I expect him to be more aggressive than looking to get others involved.
For the last leg of this parlay, I’m taking Clint Capela to get 15+ points. He did it last game, and while that isn’t the full justification, I do think he is more than capable of doing it again. Consider that Giannis accounts for roughly 12 rebounds a game. Those boards will not all be grabbed by Capela, but a few should be and that could lead to easy putbacks if they are offensive rebounds. To be clear, this is unlikely to happen. Capela has scored 15 points in the playoffs exactly once, and that was last game. But, there is reason to believe it could happen and we are going for a big score.
Same Game Parlay:
- Middleton under 25.5 points (+138)
- Lopez 2+ threes (+136)
- Holiday 3+ threes (+124)
- Holiday under 8.5 assists (+182)
- Capela 15+ points (+300)
Add in Bogdan Bogdanovic to score the game’s first basket at +800, your odds increase to +61605 where a $10 bet pays $6,160.55 if we win, and $10 if we lose.