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We’ve already done a few articles on the Super Bowl, and we are now going to delve into probably one article a day before the big game. This one in particular is going to focus in on the running games of both teams. We already talked about the touchdown scoring so this will hone in on more of the actual rushing props that are available for the game. I should mention this – looking at DraftKings, there are six people listed and the yardage total (usually just between one yard) and odds are fluctuating by the minute.
Starting on the Eagles side. There is potential for them to make a big push. My expectation is that they come out and try to establish a running game with their highly touted offensive line. The Eagles have a wide variety of running backs that are capable of handling the rock. Even their quarterback is great at scrambling and making an impact with his legs. Kansas City is going to send Chris Jones into the backfield as often as possible, but if they can’t get pressure against that offensive line, the running game will be able to really make an impact. Another reason Philadelphia will want to slow the game down and run as much as they can is to keep Patrick Mahomes off of the field. In the two games this postseason, the Eagles have given Miles Sanders the most attempts, but he is closely followed by Kenneth Gainwell. Before you think that Gainwell got all of the carries in the 49ers game because they were saving Sanders, he also received 12 carries in the game against the Giants. Boston Scott has even gotten three rushing attempts in both games. You may not believe it, but I like all three to go over their rushing totals. Starting with Scott. It is a low 8.5 yards. He could get that on one good carry. If he gets three carries, he needs just three yards per carry to exceed the total. I’m taking the over on Scott.
Next up, taking a look at Kenneth Gainwell, his total is at 19.5. He’s had 112 yards and 48 yards in the two playoffs games. If you look at the regular season, he has six games over 19.5 yards. He has five games in the regular season with five or more carries, in each of them he has 20 or more yards. So, if they keep the script, he should easily exceed this number. Finally is Miles Sanders. Sanders total is at 60.5 and while I like this one, I feel the least confident in it. I’d expect Philly to go with the hot hand. Sanders has exceeded the 61-yard mark in only one playoff game and 10 of his 17 regular season games. I actually wouldn’t advise playing the over, but I’d say it is more likely to hit than the under. I will recommend the under on Jalen Hurts though. He was posted at 50.5 and I think he will be contained most of the first quarter just so the Eagles don’t get him hurt and have to turn to their backup quarterback. I think this is more about the game flow than his capabilities.
As far as the Chiefs, there are only two people listed right now – Jerick McKinnon and Patrick Mahomes. Let’s start with Mahomes – at 20.5 yards, I’m taking the under for sure. We all know he has a high ankle sprain, so he isn’t going to look to scramble. That doesn’t mean this can’t cash – he could scramble late in the game to get a first down or something. In both playoff games, he has gotten just eight rushing yards. I expect more of the same and will take the under. As far as McKinnon, he’s averaging just 1.7 yards per carry. He’s been given the ball 15 times in the postseason and has only accumulated 26 yards. I am going to look towards his under as well. I think they are more likely to rely on Isiah Pacheco to rack up the yards. McKinnon can be effective, but it isn’t as often through a handoff as it is in a screen pass or short yardage dump off. I’m taking the under on both Chiefs.
That’s enough for the yardage and I don’t want this article to go on forever, so here are some other plays for you:
- Isiah Pacheco doesn’t have a yardage total listed but has 11.5 as his attempts listed. He’s had 12 and 10. I’m not touching this. I don’t think there is much of an edge in this one.
- I like the under for Jalen Hurts rush attempts. He is listed at 10.5 attempts. In the playoffs he is 1-1 at this number. In the regular season he was 7-8 to the under on attempts. I think he tries to stay protected in the pocket.
- For longest rush, I’d take the under for Mahomes at 11.5 and Hurts at 13.5. Hurts is more dangerous and can break free at any moment. Mahomes still probably won’t be as mobile as normal. One little tweak could make him not want to run at all.
Here are the bets I will place:
- Mahomes under 20.5 rush yards
- Mahomes under 11.5 as the longest rush
- Boston Scott over 8.5 rush yards
- Kenneth Gainwell over 19.5 rush yards
- Hurts under 10.5 rush attempts
For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024