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My MLB betting record still sucks despite hitting both bets on Monday. I enter Tuesday 47-46 on the season with a -2.7 units (u) betting balance. It sucks but the summer is long and I’ll get those lost units back.
There is a full slate in the MLB Tuesday. The games I’ve got angles in, or at least think I do, are for the Oakland Athletics versus the Cleveland Guardians and the 1st of a 2-game Freeway Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Angels.
MLB Tuesday Tilts
- Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Oakland Athletics (19-55) at Cleveland Guardians (33-38)
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Progressive Field.
After rattling off a 7-game winning streak from June 6-13, the A’s are back to being the A’s. Oakland enters this 3-game set in Cleveland on a 5-game losing skid. Over the last week, the A’s ranks 29th in both wRC+ and WAR, 30th in wOBA, and 26th in BB/K rate, per FanGraphs.
The Guardians prevented a 3-game sweep by beating the Arizona D’Backs Sunday. Cleveland is 2-4 over the last six games. I’m a little hesitant to back the Guardians. I picked them to win the World Series and always lose betting them in single games.
But, the A’s are giving LHP Ken Waldichuk (1-5, 6.64 ERA) the start Tuesday. While RHP Aaron Civale (2-2, 2.67 ERA) takes the ball for the Guardians. Per FanGraphs, Waldichuk’s Stuff+ is 126th out of 185 MLB starters with at least 30 IP and Civale is 29th.
Also, according to Statcast, Civale grades in the 96th percentile of curveball spin, 94th percentile of fastball spin, 78th percentile of hard-hit rate, and 85th percentile of barrel rate.
Since 2021, Cleveland is 8-2 straight up (SU) and 7-3 run line (RL) as favorites in Civale’s home starts vs. losing teams. The Guardians have a +2.4 RL margin and a +52.3% return on investment (ROI) in those contests.
Lastly, everyone is betting on Cleveland but at least the line movement is heading in that direction. This gives me confidence the Guardians are the right side.
BET 1.25u on the Guardians -1.5 (-125) RL at DraftKings
Los Angeles Dodgers (39-33) at Los Angeles Angels (41-33)
- First pitch: 10:07 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Angel Stadium.
The Angels host the Dodgers in the 1st of their Freeway Series back-to-back Tuesday. Legendary lefty Clayton Kershaw (8-4, 2.95 ERA) is on the bump for the Dodgers to face Angels young lefty Reid Detmers (1-5, 4.48 ERA).
I’ve faded Kershaw a couple of times this season without any success. Apparently, Kershaw isn’t washed and, in fact, is the Dodgers’ most reliable starter, which obviously shouldn’t be a surprise.
But, I’m sticking my hand in the cookie jar again Tuesday because of the sketchy line movement. Per VSIN, nearly 75% of the money is on the Dodgers but they’ve gone from a -150 favorite on the opener down to the current odds.
Plus, the Angels have been a lot more productive at the dish lately. Over the last week, the Angels out-rank the Dodgers in WAR (1.5-0.0), wRC+ (136-76), wOBA (.366-.283) and ISO (.266-.071) and have hit 10 more home runs (13-3).
Detmers’ basic numbers are misleading as well. His 3.49 FIP (“fielding independent pitching”) is nearly a full run lower than his ERA and his .362 BABIP is 70 points higher than the MLB average. Detmers has an above-average K-, whiff, and barrel rates, per Statcast.
Finally, neither bullpen is elite but the advanced stats say the Angels have better relief pitching. The Dodgers’ bullpen is in the bottom-10 of MLB in WAR, FIP, HR/9 rate, and hard-hit rate, according to FanGraphs.
BET 1u on the Angels (+115) at DraftKings
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