Royals Steal a Game from Guardians Tonight

Royals vs. Guardians 7:10 ET

Now is the time of the season where you start to examine closely who has something to play for, and who doesn’t. The Guardians are playing great baseball, but they are not able to move up much at all in the scheme of things. They are a division winner and they won’t catch the wins of the Astros or Yankees. The Royals haven’t had anything to play for in months.

Brady Singer has something left to shoot for though. This is either his last or second to last start of the season and he has a shot at being a sub-3 ERA pitcher for the year. Singer has been outstanding for the Royals. His road starts aren’t quite as dominant as his home starts, but they aren’t nearly as drastic as other starters (looking at you, Greinke). In September, he has been even more dominant. This month he has only four earned runs allowed over 26 innings. His worst start this month was still a quality start over the Guardians. That was a game that the Royals lost in extra innings, but that wasn’t really Singer’s fault. The Royals are just 1-2 against the Guardians when Singer starts.

Aaron Civale is one of the starters on the Guardians that probably won’t make a postseason start. He has been fine overall since July, but not great. The other pitchers in the rotation have been much better. At home, Civale has been better than on the road with a 4.09 ERA. He’s pitched two games on September, he has 10 innings under his belt, and allowed four earned runs. Against Kansas City on the year, he has been pretty solid. He opened the year against them and only went 3.1 innings and allowed just two earned runs. In his most recent start (July) he went seven innings and allowed just one earned run. This was a pretty solid start, but the Guardians lost the game.

I like the Royals chances tonight, so I’ll take them at +115. Is it a bet I have a ridiculous amount of confidence in? Not quite. I think this is more about Singer pitching well and Civale not being great. I could see the game going under 7 runs, but I’d rather play plus money here and I’ve had a decent feel lately for Guardians games so I’m taking a shot here.

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Written by David Troy

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