Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
Since the 2023 NBA Conference finals are all but over, I have extra betting bandwidth to use Monday on MLB. It’s an off-day for several clubs so the MLB’s Monday card is a little lackluster.
Last week, I went 3-3 in MLB but took a slight loss because of the vig. But, I’m eager to add units to my MLB 2023 bankroll. Below, I’ll give out a couple of winners (ideally) in the Cardinals-Reds and Astros-Brewers tilts.
Making money Monday in the MLB
- Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
St. Louis Cardinals (21-27) at Cincinnati Reds (19-27)
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Great American Ball Park.
The Cardinals give LHP Jordan Montgomery (2-6, 4.21 ERA) the start Monday. He will face Reds rookie LHP Brandon Williamson who earned a no-decision in Cincy’s 3-1 win at the Colorado Rockies in his MLB debut.
St. Louis has been raking lately and is much better against lefties than the Reds. Over the past two weeks, the Cardinals’ hitters lead MLB in WAR, wRC+, and wOBA and are 2nd in BB/K rate, per FanGraphs.
This season, St. Louis’s lineup out-ranks Cincinnati’s vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+ (121-83), wOBA (.345-.304), ISO (.190-.126), BB/K rate (0.38-0.30), and hard-hit rate (37.5-27.7%).
Since the beginning of last year, the Cardinals are 12-3 straight up (SU) as road favorites vs. lefty starters and 10-5 on the run line (RL). St. Louis has a +25.4% return on investment on those RL wagers.
MLB Best Bet #1: Cardinals -1.5 run line (-120), up to -125
Houston Astros (27-19) at Milwaukee Brewers (24-19)
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: American Family Field
The Astros give starting RHP Cristian Javier (4-1, 3.25 ERA) the nod Monday. Brewers counter with RHP Corbin Burnes (4-3, 3.48 ERA) who is dining on his 2021 NL Cy Young but has fallen off significantly since then.
In 2021, Burnes struck out 35.6% of his batters faced, walked just 5.2%, and gave up a home run in only 1.1% of plate appearances. This year, Burnes has a 21.6% K rate, 8.9% BB rate, and 2.4% HR rate.
On top of that, Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks 26th in K-BB%, 27th in WAR, and 29th in FIP (“fielding independent pitching”), per FanGraphs. Houston’s bullpen ranks 7th in WAR, 3rd in FIP, and 2nd in K-BB%.
The Astros’ relievers are more well-rested than the Brewers. Houston got a complete game shutout from starting LHP Framber Valdez Sunday. Milwaukee used its three best relievers by ERA Sunday in a 6-4 win over the Rays
Lastly, the Astros are 7-3 SU as road favorites in 2023 while the Brewers are 1-3 as home underdogs.
MLB Best Bet #2: Astros (-115) moneyline, up to -125
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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