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The Colorado Rockies (58-79) evened the 3-game set at Coors Field vs. the Milwaukee Brewers (71-64) Tuesday with a 10-7 extra-inning victory. This is the Brewers-Rockies regular-season finale and Milwaukee leads the season series 4-2.
The Brew Crew has a lot more to play for, but neither is playing well heading into fall baseball. Milwaukee is 3 games behind the San Diego Padres for the final NL wild card seed. The Rockies are 17 games back of the Padres.
Let’s back the COLORADO ROCKIES +1.5 (-125) on the run line at DraftKings Sportsbook for the following reasons:
- The Rockies are more productive vs. left-handed pitching.
- Situational trends point towards Colorado.
- The betting splits suggest the Rockies are the sharp play.
Betting Deets (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Brewers (-140), Rockies (+120)
- Run Line (RL): Brewers -1.5 (+105), ROCKIES -1.5 (-125)
Milwaukee is starting LHP Eric Lauer (10-6, 3.54 ERA) and Colorado sends out starting LHP Kyle Freeland (7-9, 4.75 ERA). But, the Rockies have much better numbers vs. lefty pitching than the Brewers.
Colorado’s lineup averages more runs per nine than Milwaukee’s (5.20-3.76). Furthermore, the Rockies rank higher than the Brewers vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+ (101-89), wOBA (.335-.297), ISO (.159-.139) and hard-hit rate (32.3-31.6%), per FanGraphs.
Also, Milwaukee is 16-27 RL vs. left-handed starters with a minus-21.5% return on investment (ROI). Whereas Colorado is 15-11 RL at home against lefties with a plus +19.3% ROI.
On top of that, the Rockies are a tough home team and the Brewers don’t cover as road favorites. For instance, Colorado is 28-15 RL as home underdogs with the 3rd-best ROI (plus +23.3%). While Milwaukee is 18-34 RL as road favorites with 5th-worst ROI (minus-29.6%).
But, the Brew Crew’s RL opened at -130 per Pregame.com, which is suspicious, to say the least. If I’m reading the tea leaves correctly, it appears the oddsmakers are laying a trap by making Milwaukee’s RL cheaper.
Head to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the COLORADO ROCKIES +1.5 (-125).
- A $125 bet on the Rockies +1.5 (-125) returns a $100 profit if Colorado wins outright or loses by one run.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.