Rockies Run Line Is ‘Easy Money’ Wednesday Vs. Brewers

Videos by OutKick

The Colorado Rockies (58-79) evened the 3-game set at Coors Field vs. the Milwaukee Brewers (71-64) Tuesday with a 10-7 extra-inning victory. This is the Brewers-Rockies regular-season finale and Milwaukee leads the season series 4-2.

The Brew Crew has a lot more to play for, but neither is playing well heading into fall baseball. Milwaukee is 3 games behind the San Diego Padres for the final NL wild card seed. The Rockies are 17 games back of the Padres.

Let’s back the COLORADO ROCKIES +1.5 (-125) on the run line at DraftKings Sportsbook for the following reasons:

  • The Rockies are more productive vs. left-handed pitching.
  • Situational trends point towards Colorado.
  • The betting splits suggest the Rockies are the sharp play.

Betting Deets (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline: Brewers (-140), Rockies (+120)
  • Run Line (RL): Brewers -1.5 (+105), ROCKIES -1.5 (-125)
Colorado Rockies CF Randal Grichuk in action against the New York Mets at Citi Field. (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Milwaukee is starting LHP Eric Lauer (10-6, 3.54 ERA) and Colorado sends out starting LHP Kyle Freeland (7-9, 4.75 ERA). But, the Rockies have much better numbers vs. lefty pitching than the Brewers.

Colorado’s lineup averages more runs per nine than Milwaukee’s (5.20-3.76). Furthermore, the Rockies rank higher than the Brewers vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+ (101-89), wOBA (.335-.297), ISO (.159-.139) and hard-hit rate (32.3-31.6%), per FanGraphs.

Also, Milwaukee is 16-27 RL vs. left-handed starters with a minus-21.5% return on investment (ROI). Whereas Colorado is 15-11 RL at home against lefties with a plus +19.3% ROI.

On top of that, the Rockies are a tough home team and the Brewers don’t cover as road favorites. For instance, Colorado is 28-15 RL as home underdogs with the 3rd-best ROI (plus +23.3%). While Milwaukee is 18-34 RL as road favorites with 5th-worst ROI (minus-29.6%).

Finally, there’s quirky line movement giving me more confidence in a Colorado RL wager. According to VSIN, more than 60% of the RL’s handle at DraftKings Sportsbook is on Milwaukee.

But, the Brew Crew’s RL opened at -130 per, which is suspicious, to say the least. If I’m reading the tea leaves correctly, it appears the oddsmakers are laying a trap by making Milwaukee’s RL cheaper.

Head to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the COLORADO ROCKIES +1.5 (-125).

  • A $125 bet on the Rockies +1.5 (-125) returns a $100 profit if Colorado wins outright or loses by one run.

Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.

Written by Geoff Clark

Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events.

Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB.

Clark graduated from St. John University.

Leave a Reply