Re-Handicapping the AL Division Races

Over in the National League, there is one race that is essentially over - the NL East. In the American League, there isn't a single division leader that should feel any sort of comfort. That is good for us - provided we can predict who will actually win the divisions - because there is value and money to be made on just a half-season of baseball that remains. Let's take a look at the AL divisional races before we get back to the individual games.

In the AL East, the Rays looked like they were going to run away with the division as they started the season with a ton of wins. Then, before the All-Star break, they lost seven in a row and looked like mortals. The concerning part is that they were just average on the road, but those losses came at home. If they can't maintain their dominance at home, they probably will lose this division race. The Orioles are hot on the heels of the Rays. The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox are no further than nine games back, so there is a ton of potential. The Orioles are at +400 to win the division, and I think that it is way too high. I'm taking a share of that. Take out the 13-game winning streak, the Rays are 45-35, which is good, but certainly reachable for their opponents. The Orioles have been rather consistent all season, and they sit just two games back right now. I'm going to grab them at +400. I think the Yankees do have value at +1000 as well. Once healthy they could make a good run. They need to get a bit more consistency from their hitting, but there is some value. I won't take it, but +1000 isn't the worst attempt.

The Rays have given up a lot of ground in the division race and could be overtaken by the Orioles. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

The AL Central is the biggest joke in the game. None of the teams seem like they actually want to win the division. The Guardians could win it if their hitting starts to step up. Their pitching staff has improved enough over the season that their formula for success from past years seems like it will be replicable. The Twins don't have the pitching to get it done and I don't think their batters will hit their way into victories. The White Sox have continued to underperform this year and the previous year. On paper, they probably have the best team in the division. They currently sit eight games back and I was thinking they would be the division winners this year. I'm likely to be wrong about it, but it is conceivable that they win if they get their act together. Unfortunately, there has been no evidence to show that being a possibility. The Tigers are sitting at 5.5 games back and that was after some terrible stretches during the first half. I'm not sure that I want to get involved with them at all. If I didn't have a bet on the Sox, I'd consider it at +2500 because it just seems to be way too high. I don't think it hits, but it certainly is higher than I'd predict. I just already have too much tied up in the team. I plan to hedge a bit on the Guardians at +130.

Finally, the AL West could be one of the more intriguing races. The Rangers turned around their year and were able to sit in first place for the majority of the first half. They do have injury concerns, and I am a little skeptical that the team can continue to hit as well as they did in the first half. The Astros are still a dominant team and reigning World Series champs. They don't necessarily have the Ace like they did with Verlander, but they probably have the best overall rotation considering injuries to Jacob deGrom and Robbie Ray. I'm not thinking the Mariners are going to make a run for it and the Angels are being hit by the injury bug. They also have the biggest concern of Shohei Ohtani's looming free agency. They have to make a move to keep him happy, but I don't know if they will. At +2800 if you truly think they will be buyers in hopes of making the playoffs, maybe it is possible. I think the Astros, even at -115 are the best bet here.

My favorite bet here is easily the Orioles. I think they have the best chance to get the division out of anyone in the AL East and I'm getting it at a good return. I'll take a shot on that but wouldn't be surprised about the Guardians and Astros taking down their divisions as well.

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