Rangers. Red Sox. Runs.

Rangers vs. Red Sox, 7:10 ET

Sometimes you look at a line and just think that it is off. I’ve felt for most of August that the lines were really high on just about every game on the board. There were very few reasonable moneyline offers out there on games. Most were close to -200 and I just refuse to play that. It is a losing proposition long-term. Tonight, though, we have a total that I think is too low, and frankly, I’m not sure the books can make it high enough.

At one point, Dallas Keuchel was a Cy Young pitcher. Now, hitters are feasting on this guy, yet he still keeps getting chances as if the teams are hopeful he will find his way back to normal. This season, Keuchel has an 8.84 ERA. That’s absurdly high for someone that has 13 starts on the year. In six of those starts, he has allowed six or more earned runs. The other ones haven’t been particularly great, either. Sure, there were a couple here and there (including one at Fenway Park back in May), but mostly these games have just been a hit fest for the offenses. He’s faced the Red Sox twice already this year, once, as mentioned he was solid, going six innings and allowing just two earned runs. In the other game, he went just two innings and allowed six earned runs. In his 13 starts, only four of them have been under the posted total for tonight.

Nick Pivetta hasn’t been exactly good for the Red Sox either. He certainly has been better than Keuchel, but there have been some very ugly games from him as well. The last time he had a great game was a game that I picked him to be terrible, so maybe I’m his good luck charm. This month he has allowed 13 earned runs in 28.2 innings. That’s not awful, and certainly not as bad as last month when he allowed 25 in 24 innings. His last start was rough, going just five innings and allowing five earned and two home runs. He’s consistently inconsistent.

His splits aren’t as drastic as Keuchel’s with the over-under (14-12 to the number tonight), but when he is bad, he is really bad. When he is good, he usually is just okay. I am taking the over 9 runs in this game at -120. Hopefully, we get enough on Pivetta’s side to go over the total, because Keuchel has been reliable for runs pretty much all year.

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Written by David Troy

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