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After a 1-1 result betting the MLB Monday, the juice cost me -0.28 units (u). Entering Tuesday, August 29, my 2023 MLB bankroll is -7.73 units (u) and my season-long record is 67-69. Instead of threading a needle, I’m going to bet two games pitting a playoff contender against an opponent making offseason plans already. With that in mind, let’s hit up the Rangers-Mets and Athletics-Mariners in …
MLB’s Tuesday Card
- Odds provided by DraftKings Sportbook
Texas Rangers (74-57) at New York Mets (60-72)
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Citi Field.
- Series: Texas leads 1-0.
Admittedly, I’m chasing some steam here. Per Pregame.com, Texas’s moneyline (ML) opened at -120 and is up to -130 at DraftKings. The starting pitching matchup is pretty even Tuesday but Texas has better relief pitching and hitting.
Texas give starting LHP Andrew Heaney (9-6, 4.34 ERA) the ball Tuesday. NYM sends LHP Jose Quintana (1-5, 3.73 ERA) out to the mound. Heaney’s K-rate, exit velocity, and expected slash line vs. active Mets hitters is better than Quintana vs. current Rangers, per Statcast.
Also, Texas’s lineup is more productive against lefties. The Rangers out-rank the Mets in wRC+ (123-95) vs. left-handed pitching, wOBA (.353-.306), BB/K rate (0.45-0.38), and hard-hit rate (36.2-30.6%), per FanGraphs.
Furthermore, Texas is 10 games above-.500 against lefty starters (23-13) and New York is 15 games below (13-28). It’s a small sample size but the Mets are 0-2 as home ‘dogs vs. left-handed starters this season and were shutout in both games.
Neither team is playing well lately. Texas has lost eight of its past 10 games and NYM is 4-6 over the last 10. But, the Rangers are in the thick of a playoff/divisional race and the Mets are effectively out of the postseason hunt. I.e Texas needs this game like blood.
BET 1.42u on Rangers (-142) ML over the Mets at DraftKings, down to (-150)
Oakland Athletics (38-94) at Seattle Mariners (75-56)
- First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: T-Mobile Park.
- Series: Seattle leads 1-0.
The Mariners are the hottest team in baseball and have owned the A’s this season. Seattle has won nine of the last 10 games, 16 of the past 20 and 24 of the last 30. Plus, the Mariners are 8-0 vs. the Athletics in 2023.
Five of Seattle’s eight wins over Oakland this year have been by at least two runs including Monday’s 3-game series opener (7-0). The Mariners starter Tuesday, RHP George Kirby (10-8, 3.28 ERA), beat the A’s in May.
Kirby is one of the best starters no one talks about. Per FanGraphs, Kirby has the best command among qualified starters in 2023 and is 14th in FanGraphs’ pitching power rankings. Kirby hasn’t walked a batter in his last four outings.
Over the last two weeks, Seattle’s lineup leads MLB in wRC+, wOBA, and WAR by a wide margin. The Mariners have a 178 wRC+ (Houston is 2nd with 149), .423 wOBA (Philly is 2nd with .392), and 7.3 WAR (the Astros are 2nd with 5.0), per FanGraphs.
Finally, the sportsbooks are making the Mariners pricier. Seattle’s -1.5 Run Line (RL) opened at -125, according to Pregame.com, but has climbed to -135 at some shops.
BET 1.3u on Mariners -1.5 (-130) RL over the A’s at DraftKings (down to -140)
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