Rainout Helped Philly, but Astros Will Take Game 3

Astros vs. Phillies, Game 3, 8:03 ET

Well, let’s try this again. The original Game 3, scheduled for Monday, was postponed due to weather and is now being played today. This actually helps the Phillies a bit and changes the way to review the game, but not necessarily the play. Let’s take a look.

So for the Astros, not much has changed in terms of their pitching. Lance McCullers Jr. is still taking the ball and he still has a chance to make a good start. The guy should be used to making starts after extra rest or on a different schedule at this point. For example, he didn’t have a start until August 13th this season and he went out and threw six innings. Then he went 12 days from September 21st to October 3rd without starting. He went another 12 before his first postseason start and eight before he threw again. That’s a lot of information to say this isn’t a concern that he hasn’t made a start every fifth day, or that his start will be delayed by another day.

This delay really helps the Phillies. This allows for them to start Ranger Suarez today then Aaron Nola tomorrow. This means that their best starters will be there for Games 4 and 5. It also means that Noah Syndergaard is not starting this game, which is even better for the Phillies. Suarez has been solid in the postseason with every game that he has appeared being a win for the Phillies. The one issue is he hasn’t thrown a ton of innings for them. He threw 3.1 innings against Atlanta, went 5 in his first appearance against the Padres, and then his last two appearances came from the bullpen. He did pitch in Game 1 of the series and went just 0.2 innings and allowed one hit. The bad news is that when he faced the Astros at the end of the season the Phillies lost 10-0. In that game, Suarez allowed six earned runs in just three innings.

I told you yesterday that I liked the Astros to win Game 3. I still like them to win Game 3 at -125, so we actually are getting a slightly better price, that might be a nod to the fact that Suarez has pitched well. I also think we are getting a great opportunity for the over 3.5 runs at -145. I don’t usually play something with that high of a price tag, so we will call this an unofficial play, but I do like it.

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Written by David Troy

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