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Week 1 picks were 4-1 against the spread. so let’s see if we can repeat the early success this week by using injury analysis to cash in on line inequities. The two year history of these five picks is about 60%. The Sports Injury Central SIC scores will help you do that.
It is rare for a non-quarterback to make such a huge impact but T.J. Watt is that difference maker. With his pectoral muscle tear, the Steelers defense will be on the defensive. Pittsburgh took Cincinnati to overtime in Week 1 but needed four interceptions to do so and we doubt they can come close to the seven sacks this time. New England didn’t fair well in the heat of Miami but should bounce back. Despite running back shortages, they use a committee system out of the backfield anyways. Bet against a Belicheck team starting 0-2. We picked the game earlier in the week at SIC picks when the line was -1, but still like it now at -2.5.
Blindly choosing the team with a >10 point SIC score advantage get you to 59% winners against the spread across the last two seasons. The Panthers are double digits healthier on offense and defense against the Giants. With New York’s secondary and pass rush issues, Baker Mayfield is positioned to get into the win column.
I get this game is being played in a dome but the health analysis says under. Both teams have offensive injury issues and both have relatively healthy defenses. The Buccaneers entire left side of the offensive line is injured from LT, LG to C. There are wide receiver issues with 5 out of 7 on the injury report and Chris Godwin is out, not to mention Leonard Fournette with a hamstring issue. The Saints have Alvin Kamara with a rib issue (but should play), Jameis Winston still trying to regain his mobility after ACL and Michael Thomas pushing thru his hamstring (and ankle) issue. We trust the injury analysis more than the reputation of a high scoring game.
The better play was to get in on the Bengals -2.5 as the news of the Dak Prescott thumb injury was spreading but it is still reasonable at -7. The Cowboys issues go beyond their QB. The starting left tackle and left guard are out as well as the top safety and wide receiver Michael Gallup. Meanwhile the Bengals starters are completely healthy. Even WR Tee Higgins will clear the concussion protocol to play. One can see the double digit injury advantage above and the poor passing offense injury score.
I know this seems risky to take an under that is low that involves Aaron Rodgers but the Packers offensive issue run deep and the Bears have an O line shuffle. Green Bay has Allen Lizard listed as questionable with an ankle but did not log a full practice all week. Expect the bookend starting tackles to be out again and the Packers left guard is trending toward missing as well. Both sides are pretty healthy defensively and it seems unlikely both teams will get to 20 points.
Honorable mentions include Washington +1 and Miami +3.5.
For props, DFS and fantasy analysis, go to www.SICscore.com to compare the health or the opponents run defense before settling on your running back selection. Good luck to all and take advantage of the Outkick sign up bonuses.