PrizePicks For Titans Vs. Packers: Thursday Night Football, Week 11

One of the most fun and lucrative ways to get action on an NFL card is by playing daily fantasy sports (DFS) with our friends, PrizePicks.

It’s a rare quality matchup for Thursday Night Football in Week 11. TNF can be made even better with a PrizePicks entry. The top seeds from each conference last year face off when the Tennessee Titans visit Lambeau Field to play the Green Bay Packers.

Instead of building a standard DFS lineup, with PrizePicks, you assemble 2-, 3-, 4-, 5- or 6-player entries. At PrizePicks, you don’t compete against other people, but rather vs. PrizePicks‘ projections.

Even sports bettors can enjoy PrizePicks because their “Flex” or “Power” plays are similar to betting on player props. Choose whether a player will get “more” or “less” than the stat chosen.

In the “Power” play, all the selections must be correct to win. While the “Flex” play allows you to miss a selection and still profit but there’s a 3-player minimum per “Flex” entry.

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PrizePicks Play #1: Packers RB Aaron Jones “less” than 60.5 rushing yards

Jones rushed for 138 yards last week vs. the Dallas Cowboys but has struggled to put together back-to-back good games this season. It was the fourth game in 2022 Jones eclipsed 100 rushing yards.

In the game following those other three occasions, Jones rushed for 36, 63, and 25 yards. He has rushed for “more” than 60.5 yards in five of his 10 games this season.

Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones runs with the ball against the Dallas Cowboys in the second half at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones runs with the ball against the Dallas Cowboys in the second half at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Also, since getting trampled by the Giants in Week 1, the Titans seem hellbent to stop the run. Tennessee hasn’t allowed more than 101 rushing yards since giving up 238 in Week 1 to NY.

Furthermore, the most rushing yards Tennessee has allowed to any player since Week 3 was to Patrick Mahomes (63 rushing yards) in Week 9.

The Titans have the best rushing defense in the NFL by success rate (31.6%) and third by expected points added per play (EPA/play). Per Pro Football Focus, the Packers have the third-worst run-blocking matchup of the week.

Finally, PrizePicks is dealing a better number on Jones’ rushing yards prop than sportsbooks, which is listed from 55.5-57.5 rushing yards across the most popular U.S. oddsmakers.


Play #2: Titans RB Derrick Henry “more” than 0.5 rushing TD

I’d say King Henry has bounced back nicely from an injury-shortened 2021 campaign. He is second in both rushing yards (923) and rushing TDs (9).

Henry has at least one rushing TD in six of his nine games this season and is a heavy favorite to score for a seventh game. His “anytime TD” prop is priced anywhere from -145 to -200 at the legal sportsbooks.

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry rushes for a TD against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.
Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry rushes for a TD against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Bob Levey/Getty Images)

Based on those odds, Henry’s implied probability to score a TD vs. the Packers is 59.2-66.7%. Granted, Henry’s “anytime TD” prop at sportsbooks includes a receiving TD whereas PrizePicks’ line is only for a rushing score.

But, Henry has 74 career rushing TDs compared to just three receiving TDs and hasn’t caught a TD pass since 2019. Effectively, oddsmakers give Henry a 60.0% chance of running for a score Thursday.

Lastly, Henry shows up for primetime. He has 16 rushing TDs in 15 career primetime games, which includes six rushing TDs in five Thursday games.


Play #3: Packers WR Allen Lazard “more” than 48.5 receiving yards

Even the Titans are one of the best defenses in the NFL, they are dealing with cluster injuries in the secondary. Tennessee is missing two starting defensive backs and nickleback Elijah Molden is “questionable” to play with a groin injury.

Green Bay Packers WR Allen Lazard runs with the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Green Bay Packers WR Allen Lazard runs with the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Tom Hauck/Getty Images)

Lazard mostly lines up in the slot and has the best WR-CB matchup of any Green Bay wideout this week, per PFF. He is Aaron Rodgers’ most targeted WR. Lazard is averaging 59.0 receiving yards per game. He has gained 55 or more receiving yards in four of his eight games this year.

PrizePicks' 3-leg "power" play for Thursday Night Football's game between the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers.
PrizePicks’ 3-leg “power” play for Thursday Night Football’s game between the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers.

Featured Promo: All first-time PrizePicks users that deposit and use promo code OUTKICK1 will receive a 100% instant deposit match up to $100. If you deposit $100, PrizePicks will give you $100. Entries on PrizePicks can be made in seconds and they offer fast and safe withdrawals. Sign up today and don’t forget to use our promo code OUTKICK1 for a special welcome bonus!


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Written by Geoff Clark

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