PrizePicks For Steelers Vs. Colts On Monday Night Football

PublishedNovember 28, 2022 10:32 AM EST|UpdatedNovember 28, 2022 10:32 AM EST

After some early success, I haven't been able to really replicate any of it in the previous two editions of these Monday Night Football PrizePicks. That doesn't mean that I plan to give up or even that I think we can't hit another. The opposite, in fact. I think we are due! So without further ado...

Let me first acquaint those who are not with PrizePicks. It is a neat concept of somewhat sports betting and somewhat daily fantasy. You can actually bet on the amount of fantasy points a player will score, but you can also just straight bet on the over or under for a specific stat. Unlike the book, though, you don't need to deal with juice. Sure if you think someone will have a monster game you might want to look into a ladder bet with it at a book, but if you're looking to parlay and even have a chance at winning with two of three plays or something, PrizePicks is easily the way to go.

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Kenny Pickett had a really good game last week. He was able to throw for 265 yards - the second most of his young career. He's faced a really good defense in the Bills once this year, and the Eagles could be considered that too. In the game against the Bills, one they were down 38-3, he threw for his career high, 327. In the game against the Eagles, a game they lost 35-13, he threw for just 191 yards. Here are the three teams he faced when he has thrown for over 210 yards in a game: the Bills, the Dolphins, and the Bengals. What do those teams have in common? Good offenses that put up points. The Colts do not have that. Pickett will not be expected to throw and will not have more than 210.5 yards against a good Colts defense that holds opposing quarterbacks to just 209 yards per game.

The Steelers have one thing going for them, a smart coach. Mike Tomlin doesn't always make the right decisions, and isn't the best coach in the league of course, but he is solid. He knows to take away your best offensive weapon. If you believe that Jonathan Taylor is going to go wild against the Steelers offense, I think you're misleading yourself. Over the past two games, they've allowed a total of 84 yards. Taylor is a good weapon, but his total is set a yard higher than the Steelers have allowed in TWO GAMES in a row to running backs. Taylor has only rushed for more yards in a game twice this year - against Houston and Las Vegas. I'm confident that I could rush for 100 yards against both of those teams.

Finally, if you want to control the game, it typically starts on the ground. If you throw too much, incompletions lead to time stoppage and that's never a good thing. The Colts offense isn't one you fear, but you also don't want to fall behind considering the Steelers don't have a great offense. Who is their best offensive player? Najee Harris. The Colts are allowing 113.5 yards per game to the opponent's rushing attacks, so there is an opportunity there. Harris has received over 20 carries in back-to-back games, and while he's only gotten over 17 carries three times this season, this is the type of game that would be perfect for him. I'm taking over 17.5 rush attempts for him in this game.

If you want, play around with it. I always do the full value of these bets. So $20 will return $120. You can do a FLEX play if you want and sacrifice some of the winnings, or add in another and go for even more money. It's your call, play around with it and have some fun. That's what betting should be about anyway.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024