Pricey, But Worth It: Blue Jays Run Line

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Tigers vs. Blue Jays, 7:07 ET

Sometimes you have a bad read on a game – I had it when Sandy Alcantara pitched for the Marlins a few days ago. Sometimes you have the right read, but get the wrong result – that was the Rockies and Cardinals game yesterday. The Rockies were in control for most of the game, and then fell apart in the late innings. They wasted another strong start by Kyle Freeland. It was one where I should’ve just taken the first five innings. Alas, we get games every day and we can move on.

The Tigers are just 2-8 and I’d love to say they have some help coming their way, or maybe even some hope for the rest of the season, but they are going to be a bad team. I’d think they will be slightly better than this. On their team, they only have three hitters that have enough at-bats to qualify for league leader consideration with an average over .200. Their starting shortstop, Javy Baez, is currently batting .111. Their starting third baseman, Nick Maton, is batting just .120 for the season. I’m not sure that either of them will bat higher than .220 for the season. Their pitching isn’t doing well either, and that might be an understatement considering they have a 7.14 team ERA. They have Eduardo Rodriguez taking the bump for them today. He’s had two starts on the year, both losses, but they haven’t been miserable starts. He allowed four runs over 4.2 innings against the Astros, and three runs over 5.1 innings against the Rays. Toronto has hit Rodriguez well in the past with 27 hits in 96 at-bats.

Making matters worse for the Tigers is that they have to face Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays today. The Blue Jays are off to a nice start, but not quite as hot as their division rivals the Rays. The Blue Jays are doing what you’d expect – hitting everything in sight. They already have 15 home runs, and scored 63 runs in 11 games. Over their past five games, four of them have been wins, but they have scored at least four runs in all five of those games. Their pitching staff hasn’t been great this season, but Gausman has been very good. He’s only allowed three runs on the season, all unearned. Tigers hitters have been successful against him in the past with a .259 batting average. Baez, who is struggling, has been one of the better hitters against him. Miguel Cabrera also has had some success against him, but who hasn’t he had success against? I think the Tigers are going to struggle against Gausman and the way he has pitched.

Gausman did have some issues when pitching at home last season, so I do expect some runs allowed, but we will see what happens here. The Blue Jays should easily win this game though and I think they are going to score another five or six runs in this game. I’m not sure that the Tigers will get enough runs to help the over. I’ll back Toronto on the run line at -135. I don’t like the price, but I don’t see this game going any other way.

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Written by David Troy

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