Predicting the 2013 SEC East
Yesterday I laid out my predictions for the 2013 SEC West, now I'm giving y'all my predictions for the SEC East.
I've broken down each team's schedule using five different categories: definite wins, likely wins, definite losses, likely losses, and toss-ups.
So how do I define those games.
Definite wins are games that should have spreads of 17+. It's possible that a team could lose these games, but it's incredibly unlikely. If teams lose these games you're probably heading for a Gene Chizik like implosion.
Likely wins are those games that a team should win, but it's not a slam dunk. You're somewhere around a 8-14 point favorite in the game.
Toss ups are games I'm forecasting to have a spread of a touchdown or less. These are basically games where a play or two here or there has a decent chance of determining the outcome. I've also put a few games that will likely have a margin of more than seven points in the toss-up category. For instance, LSU at Alabama will probably see Bama as a touchdown or more favorite, but given LSU and Alabama's history of late, would it really shock anyone if LSU went into Tuscaloosa and found a way to win? I don't think so, hence some of my toss-ups are a function of history, coaching, and my own feelings about the match-ups.
Figure that a toss-up is close to a 65-35 outcome at worst. That is, if the game was played 100 times the underdog would win around 35 of the games. Many of these toss-ups are much closer to 50-50 splits, where one team or the other will be a field goal or less of a favorite.
Likely losses are the reverse of the likely wins, the team that is likely to lose will be 8-14 point underdog.
Definite losses are games where a team will be a three score or more underdog.
In related news, go ahead and run for the hills Georgia Bulldog fans, you're my pick to win the 2013 BCS title.
Georgia: 11-1
Definite Wins (5):
North Texas, Appalachian State, Missouri, at Auburn, Kentucky
Likely wins (3):
at Tennessee, Vanderbilt, at Georgia Tech
Definite losses (0):
none
Toss-ups (4):
at Clemson, South Carolina, LSU, Florida
South Carolina: 10-2
Definite wins (5):
at UCF, Kentucky, at Arkansas, Mississippi State, Coastal Carolina
Likely wins (3):
North Carolina, Vanderbilt, at Missouri, at Tennessee
Definite losses (0):
none
Likely losses (0):
none
Toss-ups (3):
at Georgia, Florida, Clemson
Florida: 9-3
Definite wins (5):
Toledo, Tennessee, at Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia Southern
Likely wins (3):
at Miami, at Missouri, Vandy,
Definite losses (0):
none
Likely losses (0):
none
Toss-ups (4):
at LSU, Georgia, at South Carolina, Florida State
Vanderbilt: 7-5
Definite wins (5):
Austin Peay, at UMASS, UAB, Kentucky, Wake Forest
Likely wins (0):
none
Definite losses (1):
at Texas A&M
Likely losses (3):
Georgia, at South Carolina, at Florida
Toss-ups (3):
Ole Miss, Missouri, at Tennessee
Missouri 6-6
Definite wins (2):
Murray State, Toledo
Likely wins (2):
at Indiana, Arkansas State
Definite losses (1):
at Georgia
Likely losses (4):
Florida, South Carolina, at Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Toss-ups (3):
at Vanderbilt, at Kentucky, Tennessee
Tennessee: 6-6
Definite wins (2):
Austin Peay, South Alabama
Likely wins (1):
Western Kentucky
Definite losses (3):
at Oregon, at Florida, at Alabama
Likely losses (2):
Georgia, South Carolina
Toss-ups (4):
at Missouri, Auburn, Vandy, at Kentucky
Kentucky: 3-9
Definite wins (2):
Miami (Ohio), Alabama State
Likely wins (0):
none
Definite losses (7):
Louisville, Florida, at South Carolina, Alabama, at Mississippi State, at Vandy, at Georgia
Likely losses (0):
none
Toss-ups (3):
Western Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee
...
Total and complete agreement again, right?
Here are my predictions on the SEC West from yesterday.