We tried something similar to this yesterday and it almost cashed – we ended up losing ultimately on what I called a smaller or more conservative play. I don’t just blanket fade the Phillies, or try to support the Nationals and their minor league roster. However, specific spots do make some sense tonight is one of those spots.
Once again, we are taking the Nationals moneyline through five innings at +140. Why? Well most of it for me has to do with the starting pitching. Josiah Gray has been surprisingly good on the road for the Nationals – he has a 2.45 ERA. In his last five road starts, the Nationals overall are 3-2, and he’s gone 29 innings allowing just eight earned runs. That’s pretty damn good. In two starts against the Phillies, the Nationals are 1-1 with Gray starting, but he has gone 12 innings and allowed just five hits and two earned runs. He’s worth backing here in the first half with those kinds of numbers.
Kyle Gibson is the other portion of this equation. Gibson, in my opinion, is an overrated pitcher. He is pretty hittable, allowing 101 hits so far in 107.2 innings. That doesn’t mention that he’s allowed another 31 walks on the year. At home, he has a 4.50 ERA and he has a 4.94 ERA in July. In fairness, most of that is due to two poor starts – both home losses. His other three July starts were quality starts. I think it helps that he will be starting at home for two games in a row, but I don’t think it helps enough. The Nationals are my choice through five innings. Again, backing a bad team, I’ll play this at a shorter amount than normal, but I may split a full unit on the first five and full game for the Nats.
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