Geoff Clark
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I may be overthinking Game 2 of the 2023 Western Conference Finals with the Denver Nuggets (1-0) hosting the Los Angeles Lakers (0-1). Denver beat LAL 132-126 in an epic Game 1 Tuesday and all four All-Stars went nuts.
Nuggets two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic had a 34-21-14 triple-double on 82.8% true shooting (.706/1.000/.875). Denver PG Jamal Murray added 31-5-5 on 72.7% true shooting (.600/.500/1.000).
LeBron James scored 26 points on 9 of 16 from the field with 12 rebounds and nine assists. Anthony Davis dropped 40 on 60.9% shooting with 10 boards, three steals and two blocks.
Furthermore, several role players stepped up in Lakers-Nuggets Game 1. Lakers SG Austin Reaves and PF Rui Hachimura hit a combined 15 of 25 shots Tuesday. Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope put up 21 points on 52.9% shooting.
But, all that offense feels unsustainable, the shooting is bound to regress, LAL cannot keep up with Game 1’s pace if they hope to win this series, and results tend to zig-zag game to game in the NBA playoffs.
Lakers vs. Nuggets Game 2 Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET.
- Venue: Ball Arena in Denver.
- Series: Nuggets 1-0.
Last round vs. the Warriors, first-year Lakers coach Darvin Ham threw Lakers SG Lonnie Walker IV out there in crunch time of Game 4. And Walker out-dueled Steph Curry to steal an LAL win.
In Lakers-Nuggets Game 1, Ham had Hachimura defend Jokic and AD help off of Nuggets F Aaron Gordon at the end of the game. Just like The Lonnie Walker Game, it worked. Jokic only scored 3 points in the 4th with two turnovers.
If the Lakers employ this same strategy, the Nuggets will adjust. But, even Jokic is due for a little offensive regression, especially with AD stalking him on the court.
Also, Davis has gone missing every other game this postseason and Murray has put up an occasional dud. There are whole games where AD saves himself for defense.
Murray will just go ice-cold from the field and Lakers guards Dennis Schroeder and Reaves are above-average defenders who can force Murray into an off-game.
Plus, both teams were hitting tough shots in Game 1. Only 15.5% of LAL’s 3-point attempts in Game 1 were “wide-open” and just 13.2% for Denver.
To put that into perspective, the Charlotte Hornets were last in wide-open 3-point attempt rate during the NBA regular season at 15.5%.
On top of that …
Everyone and their grandmothers are betting the Over
This Lakers-Nuggets Game 2 total opened at 222.5, climbed up to 227, and is down to 226.5 as of 1:30 p.m. ET Thursday afternoon. My natural sports betting instinct is to fade line movement this big.
The sportsbooks clearly watched Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals and have better models than 99.9% of sports bettors. Yet people are hammering the Over.
Per VSIN, nearly 70% of the action at DraftKings is on the Over at the time of writing. Also, these NBA markets are so tight that 4 points’ worth of line movement makes a HUGE difference.
I mean I chopped my Nuggets -6 wager Tuesday even though Denver held a 21-point lead at one time in Game 1. However, that game opened at Nuggets -5.5 and closed at -7.5, meaning the line movement mattered.
Plus, Pinnacle Sportsbook has Game 2’s total set at 226 with juice on the UNDER. Pinnacle is known as the sharpest shop in town because it books the largest sports bets in the world.
Frankly, I don’t even feel great about betting the UNDER considering the caliber of offensive play we saw in Game 1. But, generally the bets that give you anxiety are on the ones that cash in this racket.
BET: UNDER 226.5 in Lakers-Nuggets, down to 225.5
- Betting strategy: Wait until closer to tip-off because most people don’t make their bets until after work or right before the start of the game.
PS Player Prop: Lakers’ LeBron James Points + Rebounds + Assists (“PRA”): 41.5
- OVER 41.5 PRA (-110)
- Under 41.5 PRA (-120)
Ignore everything I just said about “heavier juice on the Under”. Just kidding, kind of. I know I’m going with a square bet but I’m just feeling a vintage LeBron game.
He is known to use Game 1 to gain information on his foe before making adjustments. That could explain LeBron’s passivity Tuesday. James only attempted 16 shots and needs to up his production in Game 2.
Regardless, LeBron still had a 47 PRA in Game 1 and if AD commits himself more to defending Jokic, James will need to be more aggressive offensively.
Finally, this could be sort of a hedge for our Under bet for the Lakers-Nuggets total. If Game 2 goes Over the total then LeBron would most likely put up big numbers.
BET: Lakers’ LeBron OVER 41.5 Player Combo at DraftKings
- Betting Strategy: I’m higher on the Under for the Lakers-Nuggets total than LeBron’s player combo prop. Bet 1 unit (u) on the Game 2 total and 0.25 u on LeBron’s PRA. (For example, 1u = $100).
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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