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The NBA is hot garbage right now and I wouldn’t bet any of these Friday games with your money. Most of these players are “load managing” and several teams have given up on the season.
That said, I don’t want to just bet on the Masters Tournament and MLB. It’s Friday and dammit I’m betting sports tonight. I’ve spent way too much time looking at NBA player props and have a few bets to dole out.
Toronto Raptors C Jakob Poeltl 12.5 Points Prop
- OVER 12.5 points: -120
- Under: -110
The Raptors visit the Boston Celtics Friday and the Celtics already clinched the Atlantic Division and the 2-seed out East. Boston will probably end up resting a bunch of starters or at least reducing their minutes.
This is the 2nd of a Raptors-Celtics back-to-back (B2B). Boston beat Toronto 97-93 at home in the 1st of the B2B Wednesday. Poeltl scored only 19 points on 5-of-8 shooting in just 22:39 minutes of action.
The Raptors acquired Poeltl at the NBA trade deadline to help their playoff push. Toronto are locked into the postseason play-in and is still chasing the 8-seed Atlanta Hawks.
In his 24 games as a Raptor, Poeltl is averaging 13.8 points per game (PPG) and has scored at least 12 points in 16 of those contests. Poeltl has gone Over 11.5 points in eight of his 11 starts in Toronto.
At the moment, Boston’s elite defensive big Robert Williams III is not on the injury report. Williams has missed 46 games this season and it would make sense for the Celtics to manage his load. Hehe.
NBA Prop Bet #1: Raptors C Jakob Poeltl OVER 12.5 points at DraftKings
Brooklyn Nets SF Cameron Johnson 2.5 Made 3-Pointers
- OVER 2.5 made 3Ps: +105
- Under: -135
Orlando visits Brooklyn Friday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip at the Barclays Center. The Nets have a clean injury report. While Orlando has four starters listed as “questionable” and are seemingly checked out on the season.
The Magic’s 3-point defense is misleading. On one hand, Orlando is 7th in defensive 3-point percentage. On the other, the Magic are 28th in 3-point attempts allowed per game.
All teams can hit 3s nowadays in the NBA so the best 3-point defenses in the Association are the ones that do NOT allow teams to chuck 3s. Orlando is 28th in defensive wide-open 3-point-attempt rate.
The Nets acquired Johnson from the Suns via the Kevin Durant trade. Since going to Brooklyn in Feb., Johnson is shooting 37.5% from 3 (2.4-6.3) and has made three 3-pointers in seven of his 24 games. Hence the plus-money payout.
But, over his last seven games, Johnson is hitting 48.6% of his 3-pointers. The Magic allow the most 3-pointers made to opposing small forwards as well. Johnson should at least get the 3-point volume, which is half the battle.
NBA Prop Bet #2: Nets SF Cameron Johnson OVER 2.5 made 3-Pointers (+105) at DraftKings
Memphis Grizzlies SG Dillon Brooks 31.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (PRA)
- OVER 18.5 PRA: -125
- Under: -105
The Grizzlies head to Milwaukee Friday to play a Bucks team resting for the playoffs. Milwaukee clinched the 1-seed and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Memphis needs to win one more game to grab the 2-seed out West.
Brooks is more of a well-rounded small forward than most casual NBA fans realize. He averages 20.3 PRA on the season and has gone OVER 18.5 PRA in four of his last five games.
Earlier this season when the Grizzlies trounced the Bucks 142-101, Brooks had 25 PRA. Milwaukee has already ruled out all five starters, which includes three All-Defense-caliber players.
Not only will Brooks be facing the Bucks’ backups but he also averages 2.5 more PPG on the road this season. I could see Ja Morant taking it easy Friday and allowing teammates “to cook”. Since Brooks has no chills, I’m sure he’ll go all out.
NBA Prop Bet #3: Memphis Grizzlies SF Dillon Brooks OVER 18.5 PRA (-125) at DraftKings
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