Videos by OutKick
Padres vs. Phillies, Game 4, 7:45 ET
I can’t get a win in this series no matter what I do. Maybe I have a bad read on the teams – the Padres were one I stopped betting in the regular season because I was always struggling to get the correct play on them. This is definitely a close and entertaining series though. I said something in the series future that I think is still true – I think this is a series where someone goes up 3-1. I think it will be the Phillies today.
Mike Clevinger made one start for the Padres this postseason – a game I did actually call correctly – and it wasn’t a very good one. Truth be told, I think the Padres knew they were going to lose the game against the Dodgers going into it and figured it would be fine with their other three starters – they were correct. Clevinger isn’t pitching very well lately. Since September began, he’s allowed 25 earned runs over the course of 31.2 innings. He’s sprinkled in a couple of good outings, but both were home starts where he has had success. His road starts, which this one is, are concerning. He has a 5.46 ERA in his road starts. While his ERA during night games is better, I still don’t think that matters as much as him being on the road. Amazingly enough, Clevinger’s best road start was against the Phillies in Philadelphia. He covered 5 innings and allowed just one hit.
Bailey Falter is probably not the guy you want to see if you’re rooting for the Phillies. He wasn’t bad this season, but he isn’t a guy you trust all that much either. To me, the biggest concern is that he hasn’t pitched since October 5th. Will he be rusty or will he be super fresh? Honestly, I think it almost doesn’t matter because I think he is going to have a very short leash in this game. Especially if the Phillies get out to a lead. He also was very bad at home in comparison to his road appearances. He has a 5.49 home ERA and allowed double the runs at home as on the road in fewer innings. Juan Soto and Josh Bell have had success against him in limited at-bats.
The truth is I think that Falter goes no more than three innings in this game. My favorite bet for this game is a prop – Mike Clevinger over 1.5 earned runs at -120. I think this has a very good chance of happening. I also think that the total of 8 is worth a look at the over. I’m personally only playing the Clevinger prop, but if I was forced to pick… give me over 8 and Phillies moneyline -115.
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