Padres vs. Phillies, Game 5, 2:37 ET
Yesterday was a good baseball day for me. It was the first one in this series that I picked correctly, and not only did I give out a no sweat winner, I provided two leans that were easy cashes as well on Philadelphia and the over. Now the Padres turn to starter Yu Darvish to send the series back to San Diego.
If we are being realistic, of the two teams down in these Championship Series matchups, I think that the Padres are the team that can come back. I’m not saying they will, but they can. They even have a decent lineup of pitching to combat and make it happen. Darvish taking the ball today will at least provide a bit of hope to them even though they lost the series opener with him. In the first game, Darvish pitched well, he just had no run support. In seven innings, he allowed just two earned runs and both were solo homers. I think if he can replicate the performance from the opener, he should be able to at least give the Padres a chance to win. I’d personally prefer them to win it because I have a ticket on the Phillies winning the series at 4-2 and that can’t happen without another victory from the Padres.
Zack Wheeler is on the other side of this one, and if you’re familiar with him you probably already know how good he has been. He was on the opposite side of Darvish’s last start, and if Darvish was very good, Wheeler was exceptional. In that outing, he went seven innings and allowed just one hit and one walk. He’s posted a quality start in all three of his playoff outings. He’s been very economical with his pitches too, never getting above 100 pitches in a game. Philadelphia has been very kind to Wheeler this year. In 13 games, he’s allowed just 16 earned runs. Granted, it was over the course of only 78 innings, but that’s still very impressive. One cause for concern might be that this is a day start and in those games he’s allowed 24 earned runs over 47.2 innings. This could be a small issue if his routine is thrown off enough.
I’ve already mentioned that I personally need to have the Padres win this game and I do think that could happen. I don’t have a play on a side. I’m once again going with an official play on a prop: Zack Wheeler under 1.5 walks at -105. Wheeler has walked one or fewer batters in six consecutive games. He’s also walked one or fewer in nine of his 13 home starts. On top of that, he’s only given up one walk to Padres hitters in 14 innings against them.
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