Videos by OutKick
Sometimes lines don’t matter – for example, if an underdog wins, the spread line doesn’t matter. If the favorite won by 10 and the line was -3, it really didn’t matter if you got it at -3 or -4. These are broad statements and a bit of a generalization, but I bring it up because the other day when I provided picks, the lines definitely mattered and were right on. I pushed with two and went 1-1 on the others that were really close. I generally want to avoid coin-flip lines and look for the ones that don’t matter.
Penn State vs. Purdue, 6:30 ET
Purdue is the best team in the country and has one of the most dominant players leading the way for them. I watched Zach Edey’s last game and he looked like if Yao Ming was playing against fifth graders. It was a dominant performance and every time he got the ball close to the basket, he was able to score or made the right play. He has the potential tonight to eat Penn State’s team alive considering their tallest players are 6’10”. Neither one of those players play much either. They already played once this season and Purdue won by 13 with Edey dropping 30 points which accounted for a little less than half of their points. They’ve been good on the road this season, but have played some really close games on the road. A 5-point win vs. Michigan, a 1-point win against Michigan State, a 2-point win over Ohio State, and a 3-point overtime win against Nebraska. Those teams are better than Penn State, but this might be closer than you’d think for Purdue. I think the best bet in this one is actually a player prop. I’m taking Zach Edey over 21.5 points in this game. Simply put, no one will be able to stop him.
Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma, 9:00 ET
This is a pretty even matchup between in-state rivals. Both come into the game with a 12-9 record on the year and both are doing poorly within their own conference. Still, this game will get more attention simply because of who they are playing. In the last game between the two teams, Oklahoma State dominated Oklahoma and beat them by 16 on their home court. Now they need to travel and find themselves as underdogs on the road. Oklahoma does play a bit better at home, but they actually are better as a first-half team than they are as a second-half squad. In the first half of games this season, they were winning in the first half of their game against Oklahoma State last time. Not only that but just on a pure moneyline, at home (actual home games, not neutral site locations) they are 7-1-2. I’ll take them -2 in the first half at -120.
Some other smaller plays that I like today are Florida and Tennessee to go over the 132-point total in the game tonight. We aren’t asking either team to do a ton so I think as long as we get a normal pace this should go over. I also like Tulsa and Cincinnati to go under 144 in the game tonight as well. I don’t see them both putting up over 70 in this game.
For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024