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Pirates vs. Mets, 7:05 ET
Tonight we turn to the Pirates vs. Mets. In case you missed it, the Mets were just swept by the Cubs. And, now, they only have a half-game lead over the Braves for the division. It might not matter all that much as they both are given more than a 99.9% chance to make the playoffs. I don’t think anyone would want to face that rotation in a series knowing you might have to face deGrom and Scherzer twice each.
JT Brubaker is going for the Pirates. He really hasn’t been much to write home about for the season, and is a fairly average-level starting pitcher. That really isn’t intended to be a knock on him. I would guess he could be a back-end rotation guy on almost any team, but my point is he isn’t someone that hitters groan too much about having to face. This season he has been better during night games and has been better during road starts. Tonight just so happens to be a night, road start. He’s pitched pretty well this month against two playoff teams – he posted a quality start against the Cardinals, and was nearly there against the Blue Jays. Still, the Pirates offense is so bad, that they can’t really do much to help Brubaker’s cause. The Pirates have lost nine of the last ten games that Brubaker has started.
Carlos Carrasco is the pitcher the Mets turn to in order to try and stop the bleeding. He has a 3.80 ERA on the season, and his best starts seem to come at home. This isn’t his best month of the season, that would’ve been July. However, he is coming off of a quality start against the Marlins where he allowed just one earned run over six innings. He only went 2.2 innings against the Nationals in his last home start, he only allowed one earned run, but allowed five runs to cross the plate. Aside from one start in May, he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any home start on the season. The Mets have also won eight of the last ten games that Carrasco has started.
I think the Pirates could be live dogs here, but Carrasco has shown he is really good at home so it is hard to take it. Instead, I think we can see few runs from the Mets and few from the Pirates through five innings. I’m taking the under 4 at -115.
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