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Twins vs. Marlins, 6:40 ET
There was one game that I really liked yesterday and probably should’ve put two plays on it. I liked Charlie Morton and the Braves to beat the Cardinals. They jumped out to a big lead and never looked back. The Cardinals did end up putting up four runs. I hemmed and hawed between playing just the over or just the Braves, and ultimately I should’ve played both. I don’t get upset about bets I don’t make because I try not to get upset about the ones I do make. But, this did feel like an opportunity that got away. Let’s not let this one get away today.
The Twins are my least favorite team in baseball. I just don’t get the hype around them. I was correct about them last year as they faded down the stretch and ended up coming in third place within the division. I’ve covered their strange offseason, so no need to rehash it, but I need to give them credit. They’ve started the season 4-0 but let’s face it they are facing the Royals and Marlins so it isn’t like they are beating playoff competition. Still, credit where credit is due for handling business. They have one of their worst starters going for them today in Kenta Maeda. He was a fade opportunity two seasons ago and I think he is fade-worthy this year too. He was very bad on the road when he last pitched, posting a 6.06 ERA compared to a 2.13 home ERA. Now he is back after Tommy John surgery and he has to face the reigning Cy Young winner?
The Marlins have… well… not much going for them at all. The only thing that they can look forward to is that every five games they will have Sandy Alcantara starting for them. Their lineup is basically the equivalent of a minor-league team. Their one win this season was a 2-1 victory. They’ve actually not scored more than three runs in a game this season. They’ve scored three runs once, two runs twice, and one run three times. They did get the opportunity to face a Maeda who is coming off of injury and is a very hittable guy. Plus they shouldn’t have the pressure of mounting a comeback as well. With Alcantara, the Marlins should be able to put up two runs and be able to win this. I think that he can control the Twins. He was outstanding at home last season with a 1.64 ERA. The Twins hitters are just 5-for-22 against Alcantara.
I’m taking a shot here on the Marlins to win on the run line. I wish they had a way better offense than they do, but there is something inspiring about having your best pitcher starting the game. This can motivate the team. I’m going to back them at +155 to win by two or more runs. It is a very specific spot and situation because you won’t find me taking the Marlins to win games often, let alone needing them to win by more than one run.
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