There are an alarming number of heavy favorites today in the MLB slate. I don’t remember the last time I saw a set of this many games with all but one game over -150 on the moneyline. The good news, though is there will be winners on the underdog size and it might be a nice payout.
One of these underdogs we are taking today is the Tampa Bay Rays over the Milwaukee Brewers. Both teams come in with identical records and fairly similar stats. The Rays do have a better ERA, and it is because of the pitching that I think they win this one. It will be a bullpen game for the Rays. They currently sit with a 3.39 bullpen ERA. They are having Jimmy Yacabonis open the game for them, and his first appearance with the Rays was kind of a disaster, but I think he can rebound in this one.
Freddy Peralta is back in the rotation for the Brewers, he was good last year, but this year hasn’t been too impressive. In his first start back, he only lasted 3.2 innings and allowed six base runners and two earned runs. I don’t think they are going to let a bunch of pitches pile up for Peralta, I expect him to maybe get through five innings. Their bullpen, now without Hader, still is about a middle of the pack. The line is too high for the Brewers to win this. I’m taking the Rays.
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