Play the Under with Lynn on the Mound

White Sox vs. Athletics, 4:07 ET

Maybe this was what the White Sox needed, a shot at a team that has struggled most of the year. Afterall if you look at who the White Sox beat up on in their own division, it is the Royals and Tigers. They tend to struggle against the Twins and Guardians. The Athletics on the other hand have to just throw this season away.

For the White Sox, we get Lance Lynn on the mound. In the past two or three years, that would mean you basically blindly bet the other team under their total runs. This year? Not so much. The good news for Sox fans is that Lynn is getting back to his normal and more consistent pitching than he had in previous seasons. He had a great August and continued it with a masterful performance against the Mariners last week. Over his last seven starts, he has recorded a quality start in five of them. One of them he left just before recording the last out to qualify for it. Still, in those seven starts, the Sox are just 4-3. They aren’t taking advantage of the quality pitching. They busted out the bats Thursday, but it took until the ninth inning for the Sox to figure it out yesterday.

Adrian Martinez has been used sporadically throughout the year for the Atheltics. This will be his eighth start of the campaign and he’s been okay overall. In those seven starts he’s already made, he has a 4.37 ERA. He has covered 35 innings, but in those innings, he’s allowed 46 baserunners through hits or walks. There isn’t a ton of data to go on, and these splits can be drastically skewed because of how few starts and innings he has pitched, but in day starts, which this game is, he has a 1.72 ERA instead of the 6.52 he has in night games.

The White Sox should be able to manage to beat Martinez and my money says that Lynn will continue his streak of good starts. Maybe he falters and Martinez really is dominant in the day starts. He seems like a decent enough pitcher to do it. I’m going to take the under in the game. I’ll take the under 7.5 at -115.

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Written by David Troy

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