Play the Under on Getaway Day in San Francisco

Up until this weekend, the Phillies were playing pretty solid baseball. Then they took on the Giants, a team that came into the series having lost seven in a row. The Giants clobbered them in the first game and then took down game two, a game that I incorrectly called, and ultimately, it cost me the chance at 10 consecutive winning plays. Oh well. Let’s see if we can earn it back in this one.

Ranger Suarez is having a pretty solid campaign for the Phillies on the year. And, as I mentioned in another play (Cubs/Cardinals), the splits on him tell a story. One that works out for the Phillies. Suarez has been much better as a road starter. In 12 road starts, he has amassed 71 innings and allowed just 20 earned runs. He has allowed 27 in 52.2 innings at home. July and August were good months for him, we have to see what happens here in September. But, in those two months, he allowed only 12 earned runs in 44.2 innings. It hasn’t been all roses for Suarez. His outing against the Diamondbacks, his most recent start, he only went 3.2 innings. He allowed six runs, only two were earned though. I don’t know if he was pulled early or not there he might not have been able to get out of the inning, but he only threw 74 pitches.

On the other side is my guy, Carlos Rodon. Rodon has been really good at home this year, posting a 2.42 home ERA. Most of August was good for him, with the exception of his last start against the Padres, and that was a home start. Part of the success that Rodon has seen though is against teams that aren’t very good offensively. He seems to have some issues with playing against the NL West as four of his last six starts against them have seen four or more earned runs allowed. Luckily for him, the Phillies play in the NL East. Rodon has faced the Phillies once, it was a 6-5 loss for the Giants where he allowed just one earned run through five innings.

I think both teams have a shot in this game, and I do lean Giants to win. I think Rodon is the better pitcher, but that is not an official play for me. Instead, I’m taking the under 4 in this game through five innings at -125. Both starters are in their optimal situations and with getaway day on their mind, I think we can coast.

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Written by David Troy

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