Play the Under in Birds vs. ‘Stros

Astros vs. Orioles, 7:05 ET

They aren’t quite out of it yet! The Orioles still have a very outside chance of the final Wild Card spot. They will definitely need help as they are chasing two teams in their division and the Mariners. The Astros have already locked up their division and are sure to win 100 games once again. Will today be the day that they do it?

With Justin Verlander on the bump, it is hard to think anything outside of a victory will happen for the Astros. Verlander, currently 39 years old, has the best ERA in baseball at 1.78. This is probably the best year of his successful career, and it comes after a year of missed baseball. He has a chance to win 20 games this year as well for the third time in his career, so there is stuff or incentive for him to continue pitching even though they will be cautious for his Cy Young award and the playoffs. Verlander has pitched against the Orioles once this season, it was a three-inning start that he left due to a calf injury. He pitched after that and completed five innings in his last start against the Athletics.

Kyle Bradish has not been very good for the Orioles on the entire season, but since June, something has clicked. Over the last ten starts that cover June through September, he has a total of 55.1 innings pitched. In those innings, he’s only allowed 21 earned runs. It isn’t all roses and sunshine with him, in those same ten starts, he has only three quality starts. He has also allowed three earned runs in five of the ten starts. He had one start against the Astros this season and it was arguably the best start of the season. He went eight innings and allowed just two hits and no earned runs.

So, will the Orioles have a chance today because Bradish is just a really strong pitcher that dominates the Astros? I kind of doubt it. I think the Astros win this game, but the Orioles could keep it close. If I had to, I’d play the Orioles +1.5 at -110. Instead, I’m taking the under 7 for the game. Verlander just doesn’t give up many runs and Bradish has been good enough that the final score should be something like 3-2 Astros.

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Written by David Troy

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