Play the Total in Marlins vs. Brewers

Marlins vs. Brewers, 7:40 ET

After yesterday’s victory, the Brewers chances of making the playoffs jumped from roughly 20% to about 35%. They are now just a half-game back of the last spot for the playoffs behind the crumbling Phillies team. The Brewers aren’t playing the best baseball or something, the Phillies are just playing really badly. Now Philly needs some help from their division colleagues.

Braxton Garrett is taking the ball for the Marlins and it is not in the optimal situation for him. Over the season, he has been very good at home, but he has been worse on the road and in night starts. On the season, he has allowed 21 earned runs over 43 innings. His last three road starts saw Garrett allow nine earned runs over 15.2 innings. He has done much better in September, and he even had a pretty good August. This month, he has had only two starts, but he has only allowed three earned runs in 10.2 innings. He hasn’t faced the Brewers this season and no one on the team outside of Andrew McCutchen have seen him before. That’s not a great sign for Garrett, he has allowed a .270 average the first time through the lineup. That means that it usually takes a little while for the starter to settle in.

Eric Lauer is pitching for the Brewers, and unlike Garrett, he is pitching in an optimal situation. At Home, Lauer has a 2.98 ERA. The bad news for Lauer and the Brewers is that he has only gone 2.2 innings in both of his last two starts. All three of the past stars he’s had were on the road where he does typically struggle. In his most recent home start, he faced the Cubs and still allowed four earned runs. He isn’t pitching very well right now. In his most recent outing against the Reds, he allowed five hits and three walks in just 2.2 innings. His bullpen was able to get him out of trouble as he was only charged with two earned runs. The Marlins also don’t have much experience against him. He is better through the lineups the first time through.

Neither of these teams have lineups that make pitchers shake. There are very few hitters in the Marlins lineup that would be everyday players on other teams. Even with that, I think this game goes over the total for the game. At just 7.5 I think it is a bit too low. Lauer is not pitching well, even though he might be better at home, and Garrett is not pitching well on the road. I’m taking over 7.5 at -110.

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Written by David Troy

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