Play The Over On A Low Line

Mariners vs. Astros, 7:15 ET

I'm actually looking forward to a break from baseball personally. The past two years I was killing it and didn't want the first half to end or the full season to end. This year has been much less consistent and I've seen quite a few bad beats with my plays. No complaints or excuses, gambling is tough - if it was easy, everyone would be rich and casinos would be small. I do find encouragement in the fact that each day gives us a new opportunity to start a winning streak. Let's try and grab some wins before the break with a game between the Mariners and Astros.

The injury bug has bit the Mariners a little bit this season, but there really shouldn't be much of an excuse for the team. All teams have had someone get injured, maybe not as significantly as a former Cy Young winner, but still significant injuries happen during the year and you have to rise above. The Rangers lost their former Cy Young pitcher and still are at the top of the division. The Mariners have struggled to stay above .500 this year. The timely hitting just doesn't appear to be there. Other stats indicate they probably are actually better than the record suggests, so that shows that there is hope in the second half. Today, they are sending out Bryan Woo to face the Astros in hopes of putting together some wins before the break. Woo has been very good outside of his debut. Take that two-inning, six-earned run start out, and he has 26.2 innings where he has allowed just seven earned runs. The Astros have never seen him so this could be a game where Woo has the upper hand through the first three innings.

Framber Valdez takes the ball against the Mariners. (Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images)

Framber Valdez hasn't been quite as rewarding to us as he was last season. Part of sports betting is finding trends and capitalizing on them before they are too published. I was all over Valdez a lot last season when he was starting his quality start streak and then we continued to make money on him even after the streak was popularized. I hope that he can deliver more of those wins to us soon. Don't get me wrong, Valdez still has been very good, I just haven't picked the best spots for him. He has been better at home this season with a 2.05 ERA and he hasn't had a month this season with an ERA over three. This will be his first time facing Seattle this season, but the Astros lefty has held Mariners hitters to just 18 hits in 81 at-bats against him. He's not in poor form currently, but he did allow four earned runs over six innings in his last start.

I think this is a good opportunity for us to take the over 7. Valdez probably will give up two or three runs to his opponent like normal, and Woo might be strong early, but I expect the Astros hitters to be able to figure him out. That means we can get five or six runs off of our starters alone. I'll take the over.

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