Play the Over in Nats vs. Cards

Nationals vs. Cardinals, 7:45 ET

Yesterday, we correctly played this Nationals/Cardinals matchup. In the game we took Anibal Sanchez through five innings and they coasted to a +195 victory for us. Today, we again turn to the same series as we look to see if we can take another unit off of the books in this one.

Paolo Espino is taking the ball for the Nationals today. He’s been used as a bit of a swingman role this year where he has 20 relief appearances and 15 starts on the year. One thing that is really consistent, though, is that he allows runs. In his last start, he was solid, he went five innings and allowed just one earned run – a solo homer. However, in his previous ten starts that spanned July and August, he gave up 30 earned runs over 46 innings. Since the start of July, Espino hasn’t made it through the sixth inning of a start and he has allowed three or more earned runs in seven of his 11 starts. The Nationals have lost just six of those 11 starts despite Espino not really always giving them a chance to win.

For the Cardinals, Jose Quintana is taking the hill. Since coming over from Pittsburgh, Quintana has been fairly solid and the Cardinals have won five of his six starts. He’s also been consistent, it doesn’t matter how many innings he pitches, he basically allows two runs no matter what. In his last five outings, he’s allowed two runs. Somehow in four of those, he also has allowed exactly seven hits. Every game he has pitched in also has gone over today’s posted total of 7.5 runs.

We know Espino will give up two or three earned runs. We know that Quintana will give up two runs. We also know both of them should probably be out of the game after five innings. I’m playing both overs in this game. I like over 4 through five innings at -120. And, I also like the over 7.5 for the full game at -115. The Nationals bullpen should easily get us there this game if we aren’t over by the end of the fifth.

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Written by David Troy

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