Play the Over in Guardians vs. Mariners

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Guardians vs. Mariners, 4:10 ET

Seattle took the first game of the series and lost in extras last night. Now, the rubber match happens and each team looks to take the series win. I mentioned yesterday that these games are very important to both teams, so the motivation will be there on both sides – even on getaway day.

Aaron Civale looks to see if he can secure it for the Guardians. The good news for the team is that the Guardians have won each of the last three games that Civale has pitched. He’s only made it to the sixth inning once in the past three outings, but he has been successful in the three appearances. He’s gone at least four innings and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs. There have been some really ugly appearances for Civale on the year, but there are also stellar outings, so you really never know what you’re going to get out of him, unfortunately.

On the other side, is Robbie Ray, a guy that you should know what you’re getting every time he toes the rubber. Is Ray having a Cy Young caliber season? No, not by any means, but I have to imagine the Mariners are pretty pleased with what he is giving them in the first season with Seattle. He’s been great in August, too. He has posted a 2.08 ERA over 26 innings. I am a little concerned about his walks, but he doesn’t give up too many hits on top of those walks so he tends to get out of the self-induced trouble.

Today the line is favoring the Mariners for sure, and I do think they win. I think they probably cover the run line. But at just 7 runs, this total for me is too low. Ray will likely allow a couple of runs, as will Civale, and the bullpens should allow the final ones we need. Play over 7 at -125.

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Written by David Troy

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