Play the +142 Run Line in This Game

We correctly played yesterday’s Brewers/Cardinals game. Today, we get another opportunity to take some cash off of the books in the series. In what I consider a very important series, especially for August, you should expect some playoff-style considerations in the game. That helps in a lot of ways.

One thing that isn’t very fitting with the playoff narrative I mentioned is that the Brewers are still forced to start Aaron Ashby. He’s only had about one good start in the last ten times out. I personally don’t expect him to last long in this game. My best guess is that he goes a few innings and allows two or three runs before Craig Counsell takes him out of the game and turns it to the bullpen. The Brewers still have a good bullpen, but without Hader, there are still issues. The Brewers haven’t fared well in games started by Ashby, and that isn’t completely his fault, but they are 1-9 in his last 10 games and they’ve lost eight of those by more than one run.

The reason I like this is that we have Miles Mikolas going for the birds today. St. Louis has been a very comfortable place for Mikolas. He’s got a 2.48 home ERA and has been dominant for the majority of the year there. August hasn’t been very kind to him as he has two starts and has allowed 13 total earned runs, but the number is a bit misleading. He allowed 10 earned in Colorado in his last start. The other three came in a quality start, at home, against the Cubs. He has faced the Brewers three times this season and the Cardinals are just 1-2 in those starts. As luck would have it, his worst of the three starts came at Busch Stadium. I don’t think that is the case today and will play the Cardinals runline in this one.

For a note, we played the Brewers moneyline yesterday despite a cost similar to the Cardinals price today. I just don’t think this game will be as close as yesterday so I’d rather risk 1u to win 1.40 rather than risk 1.42u to win 1.

Written by David Troy

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